Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) shares are certainly out of favour this year.
On Friday, the company's shares hit a 52-week low before ending the session at $7.10.
This means that since the start of 2025, the Aussie wine stock is now down 37%.
This is despite the Penfolds owner continuing to grow its dividend this year and expectations for further growth in FY 2026 and beyond.
In light of this, I think that a buying opportunity could have been created for patient investors.
I'm not alone with this view. The team at Morgans is also cautiously bullish on the wine giant and sees potential for major returns over the next 12 months.
What is the broker saying about this Aussie stock?
As a reminder, in FY 2025, Treasury Wine rewarded its shareholders with a partially franked dividend of 40 cents per share. This was up 11% on FY 2024's dividend.
The team at Morgans believes that a modest increase to 41 cents per share is coming in FY 2026, before another increase to 46 cents per share in FY 2027. Based on its current share price, this would mean dividend yields of 5.8% and 6.5%, respectively.
But the returns won't stop there according to the broker. It believes its shares are dirt cheap at current levels and could rise materially over the next 12 months.
This is because the Aussie stock is trading on very low multiples despite targeting further growth this year. Morgans said:
TWE's FY25 result was in line with guidance, reporting a credible 17% growth in EBITS during a period of macro-economic and category headwinds. TWE is targeting further EBITS growth in FY26, led by Penfolds. We have made modest changes to our forecasts reflecting the disruption associated with a change of distributor in California. While lacking near term share price catalysts given industry and macro headwinds and a CEO transition, trading on an FY26F PE of only 12.7x, we maintain a BUY rating. A$200m share buyback should provide some degree of share price support.
According to the note, the broker has a buy rating and $10.10 price target on Treasury Wine's shares. This implies potential upside of 42% for investors between now and this time next year.
Including dividends, this means a total potential 12-month return of approximately 48% for investors with this beaten down Aussie stock.
