Up 9% in 2025, why is the ASX 200 lagging so many other nations' stock markets?

More than half of the world's major stock markets are outperforming the ASX 200 in 2025. But why?

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The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has rebounded from its late morning sell-down and is currently up 0.6% at 8,865.5 points.

That sees Australia's benchmark index up 8.7% since the closing bell rang on 31 December.

As you may know, the ASX 200 notched its most recent record closing high of 9,019.1 points on 21 August.

While the benchmark Aussie index is down 1.8% from that all-time high, the year-to-date returns are still tracking above the 10-year annualised average.

Yet despite that solid run, the returns from the Aussie stock market rank at number 22 out of 30 among the world's major stock markets, according to Google Finance.

And despite closing at new record highs overnight, the 13.8% year-to-date gains posted by the S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) sees the US stock market at only number 16 on that list.

Saudi Arabia's and Denmark's stock markets are the only two to have gone backwards on the list of 30. Denmark's market is leading the way lower, down 23% in 2025.

As for the top two performers of 2025 so far, hats off to the South Korean stock market, up 43%, and the Vietnamese stock market, up a whopping 57%.

Why is the ASX 200 on the slow track in 2025?

Commenting on the relative underperformance of the ASX 200, Wilson Asset Management's Anna Milne pointed to the index's heavy weighting towards materials and financials shares.

According to Milne (quoted by The Australian Financial Review):

When there are big world shifting events, such as AI, those are certainly the industries that benefit less. We just haven't seen the valuations of the large caps doubling like some have seen offshore.

And Australia's world-leading superannuation industry may not be helping matters.

Milne noted:

The ASX is already considered quite expensive, partly due to the ongoing money flows from our superannuation system. The depth of capital in Australia has sent valuations higher over the decade."

As for the strong outperformance over the ASX 200 in some emerging nations' stock markets, like Korea and Vietnam, Antipodes' emerging markets portfolio manager John Stavliotis added (quoted by the AFR):

The weakening US dollar is a strong tailwind for emerging market returns, particularly in ASEAN, where these countries are always fighting against capital flight when the dollar is strong and US rates are high.

The best and worst ASX performers year to date

So, which ASX 200 stocks have been adding to the cumulative gains, and which have been subtracting?

Well, the worst three share price performers year to date are:

  • Reece Ltd (ASX: REH) shares are down 59%
  • Domino's Pizza Enterprises Ltd (ASX: DMP) shares are down 53%
  • James Hardie Industries PLC (ASX: JHX) shares are down 48%

And the best three performers on the ASX 200 so far in 2025 are:

  • DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO) shares are up 381%
  • Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) are up 50%
  • Austal Ltd (ASX: ASB) are up 143%

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Austal, Domino's Pizza Enterprises, and DroneShield. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Domino's Pizza Enterprises. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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