Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (ASX: HVN) shares have been on a tear since plumbing to recent lows in April.
On 7 April, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) electronics and home furnishings retail stock closed the day trading for $4.59.
On Monday, those same shares closed changing hands for $7.30 apiece.
That puts the ASX 200 stock up an impressive 59% since those April lows. And it sees the company commanding a market cap north of $9 billion.
Taking a step back, Harvey Norman shares are up 51% over 12 months. But that's not including the two fully franked dividends, totalling 26.5 cents a share, that the retailer paid (or shortly will pay) over the full year.
At Monday's closing price, the ASX 200 retail stock trades on a dividend yield (partly trailing, partly pending) of 3.6%.
Looking ahead, however, Shaw and Partners' Jed Richards forecasts some headwinds following this strong run higher (courtesy of The Bull).
Image source: Getty Images
Is it too late to buy Harvey Norman shares now?
Harvey Norman shares got a big boost following the release of the company's full-year FY 2025 results on 29 August.
Shares closed up 11.5% on the day of the results release and gained another 8.6% on the following trading day.
Commenting on those results, Richards said, "The retail giant announced reported profit before tax of $753.1 million in fiscal year 2025, up 39% on the prior corresponding period."
He added, "Total assets reached $8.37 billion on June 30, 2025. It was the first time total assets surpassed $8 billion."
But Richards placed a sell recommendation on Harvey Norman shares, citing their rapid rise.
"The shares have risen from $4.83 on April 4 to trade at $7.35 on September 18. We suggest investors consider locking in some gains after a strong rally," he said.
Richards concluded, "While the company has performed well, the recent share price appears stretched. In our opinion, near term catalysts are limited at this point."
A word from the company's CEO
Following the release of the FY 2025 results that sent Harvey Norman shares storming higher, chairman Gerry Harvey said:
The FY25 result is a testament to the strength of our diversified business model and the disciplined execution of our long-term strategy.
We've delivered solid growth across all core segments, driven by strong franchisee performance, the resilience of our property portfolio, our measured global expansion, and continued investment in digital transformation and in-store innovation.
As for the company's international expansion, Harvey added, "The momentum across our overseas company-operated stores in FY25 has continued into FY26, with sales for July 2025 rising strongly against the prior corresponding period."
