Why are New Hope Corporation shares tumbling 6% today?

The ASX 200 coal mining stock is deeply in the red and has now fallen 14% in four days.

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Key points

  • New Hope Corporation shares dropped 5.9% to $3.95, adding to a 14% decline over four days, influenced by a downtick in earnings expectations and reduced coal prices.
  • Macquarie downgraded New Hope to an underperform rating with a $3.80 price target due to a lower production and earnings outlook.
  • New Hope shares have fallen 17% over the past year against an 8% rise for the ASX 200.

New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC) shares are down 5.9% to $3.95 while the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up 0.3%.

Today's fall adds to a cumulative decline of 14% over the past four trading days for this ASX 200 coal share.

But there's a specific reason for today's dive.

Why are New Hope Corporation shares in the red?

It's ex-dividend day.

That means New Hope Corporation shares are no longer trading with the next dividend payment attached.

The miner will pay a fully franked final dividend of 15 cents per share, down 32% compared to the final FY24 dividend.

New Hope Corporation is among 9 ASX shares with ex-dividend dates this week.

The ASX 200 mining share will pay the final dividend on 8 October.

Want to reinvest your dividends?

New Hope has introduced a dividend reinvestment plan (DRP), which enables shareholders to automatically reinvest their dividends.

If you're a New Hope shareholder and you'd prefer to reinvest, you have until 5pm on Wednesday to submit your DRP form.

New Hope is not offering a discount for DRP shares.

The DRP share price will be determined by taking the arithmetic average of the daily volume weighted average market price of all New Hope Corporation shares sold on ASX between 25 September and 1 October.

Based on today's New Hope share price, the miner currently has a trailing annual dividend yield of 8.6%.

That sounds healthy, but remember, the trailing yield is based on past earnings, and Macquarie is pessimistic on the earnings outlook.

Why has this ASX 200 coal share slumped 14% in 4 days?

The ASX 200 coal share has had a rough trot since the miner released its FY25 results last Tuesday.

On the day, the New Hope Corporation share price leapt 5.1% on news of an 18% increase in saleable coal production of 10.7 Mt.

However, the miner reported lower earnings due to lower coal prices.

New Hope reported underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) of $765.8 million, down from $859.9 million in FY24, and a net profit after tax of $439.4 million, down from $475.9 million in FY24.

The day after the FY25 report was released, New Hope shares began to fall.

The ASX 200 coal mining share is now down 14% in four days.

After the FY25 report, Macquarie downgraded New Hope Corporation shares to an underperform rating.

The broker also reduced its 12-month price target to $3.80.

In a note, Macquarie said:

… Whilst we see merit in a yield maximisation strategy, we downgrade to Underperform on a weaker production outlook and earnings outlook.

Valuation: Our target price has decreased 5% to A$3.80ps due to a lower Malabar valuation and weaker short term earnings outlook.

New Hope Corporation share price snapshot

New Hope Corporation shares have fallen 17% over the past 12 months.

This compares to an 8% increase for the ASX 200.

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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