The CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) share price has had a difficult time during President Trump's term so far. In 2025 to date, the ASX biotech share has fallen by almost 30%, as the chart below shows.
The diversification of the business hasn't seemed to have helped it in the minds of investors amid the challenging operating environment.
In FY26, it's expecting to grow its revenue by between 4% to 5% and deliver underlying net profit (NPATA) growth of between 7% to 10%, excluding restructuring costs. The guidance also assumes no impact from US pharmaceutical sector tariffs.
This FY26 guidance wasn't enough to excite investors and neither was the plan to split up its business.
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Demerger plans
CSL says that it intends to demerge CSL Seqirus – the vaccine business – before the end of FY26.
The company says a demerger will allow autonomy to set an independent strategic direction, including capitalising on potential opportunities that may arise in a "highly dynamic vaccines market, as well as reducing complexity, making the business more agile and efficient to manage".
There is a lot of uncertainty in the US about how the vaccine market could change under new health officials in the Trump administration. I think there's a fair chance that growth in demand and profitability could slow for that business, so it may be better for CSL and Seqirus to continue as separate businesses with their own plans.
CSL profit projections
I think a key factor that may determine the direction of the CSL share price is what happens with the bottom line. Investors typically value a business based on its net profit and projections for the future.
Broker UBS notes that CSL is targeting medium-term earnings per share (EPS) growth of 15% per year, including net cost savings from research and development (R&D) restructuring. The broker's analysis suggests cost savings of between US$500 million to US$550 million over three years.
Both UBS and CSL believe the company's plasma products will be exempt from US tariffs and it's too early to judge how the US will implement its most favoured nation (MFN) policy. The MFN policy is where the US wants the same prices for some healthcare products as other nations that receive cheaper/the cheapest prices.
At this stage, UBS' estimates exclude any impacts from tariffs or from the MFN policy.
The broker currently estimates net profit of US$3.5 billion in FY26, US$4 billion in FY27, US$4.8 billion in FY28 and US$5.3 billion in FY29.
If CSL's net profit rises as expected (to some extent) then this could be an excellent time to invest in the ASX healthcare share while investor confidence is low. However, as mentioned, the projections do include some assumed positive outcomes for CSL, which may not happen. At this lower price, I think the CSL share price could be a solid buy. But, I'm not optimistic about the outlook in the US for the company.
