Gold prices have risen almost 40% over the past year, but Wilsons Advisory says that despite the likelihood of a short-term pullback, the precious metal still has a place in investors' portfolios.
In US dollar terms, the price of gold has increased by US$1045.64, or 39.81%, over 12 months and US$3202.61, or 682.4%, over five years.
Gold is a favoured commodity for investors, analysts at Wilsons Advisory write in a note to clients, because it tends to have a low, and at times negative correlation to other asset classes, "particularly in times of acute stress".
Gold's low or negative correlation is potentially attractive from a diversification standpoint, helping to dampen overall portfolio volatility. Therefore, gold can potentially complement other portfolio 'hedges' such as high-grade fixed interest.
Wilsons adds that given its run-up over the past 12 months, "gold is arguably overbought in technical terms, and may be due for a short-term pullback".
They are not advising that investors sell out of the precious metal, however.
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Gold still has its place in portfolios
"In our view the medium-term picture remains positive for both gold and gold equities,'' Wilsons analysts say.
They argue that some of the traditional triggers for gold price support remain active, including the likelihood of more geopolitical tension.
The US dollar is likely to fall further in the medium-term as de-dollarisation led by ongoing central bank gold accumulation continues. Global interest rates look set to fall further keeping the opportunity cost of holding gold down. There is also the latent tail risk of a public debt crisis at some point in coming the years, albeit timing this 'event' is near impossible. Finally, geopolitical tensions are more likely to escalate than de-escalate in coming years in our view. As a result, demand for gold is likely to remain strong.
Bitcoin plays a different role
Wilsons analysts also argue that while some have suggested Bitcoin can play a similar hedging role in investment portfolios, they do not believe this is the case.
One similarity often cited is their perceived ability to protect investors from currency debasement because neither gold nor Bitcoin are tied to a specific country's currency. This has led many investors to dub Bitcoin the new gold or 'digital gold'.
But Wilsons says Bitcoin has actually behaved like a high "beta risk" asset – or one which is more volatile than equities during times of market volatility.
As a result, we view Bitcoin as a highly speculative risk asset with a different potential place in investor portfolios relative to gold.
