Why this ASX gold stock could be a strong buy with 40% upside

Golden returns could be on the cards for buyers of this share.

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Key points

  • Alkane Resources has completed a merger with Mandalay Resources, transforming into a diversified, multi-mine gold producer with strong leverage to the gold price.
  • Bell Potter retains a bullish view, highlighting Alkane Resources' inclusion in the ASX300 Index and its strengthened growth platform, expecting a balance sheet improvement and a lower cost of capital for new projects.
  • The broker maintains a buy rating with an improved price target of $1.45, implying a potential upside of 42% from its current share price of $1.02 over the next 12 months.

If you are wanting exposure to the sky high gold price, then Alkane Resources Ltd (ASX: ALK) shares could be the way to do it.

That's the view of the team at Bell Potter, which is feeling bullish about the ASX gold stock.

What is the broker saying about this ASX gold stock?

Bell Potter notes that Alkane Resources has now completed its merger with gold and antimony producer Mandalay Resources and provided guidance for the year ahead.

It is a fan of the merger and believes the ASX gold stock has transformed into a diversified, multi-mine gold producer. It said:

ALK now presents as a diversified, multi-mine gold producer with exposure to antimony – a critical mineral – and strong leverage to the gold price. It has a strengthened balance sheet, holding net cash of ~A$145m and a hedge book of ~60koz which has been diluted down to >20% of forecast production (from ~40% on Tomingley alone). FY26 group guidance is for 155-170koz gold and 800-900t antimony at All-In-Sustaining Costs (AISC) of A$2,600-A$2,900/oz.

And while its shares have re-rated since the completion of the merger, the broker doesn't believe it is too late to invest. It adds:

ALK has received a positive re-rating from the market since completion of the merger. This has, at least in part, realised one of the objectives of the transaction which was to create a company of greater relevance to investors with increased production scale and market capitalisation. It has also achieved inclusion in the ASX300 Index, effective September 22, 2025.

ALK is now a much stronger growth platform whether organic or inorganic. Beyond having greater value in its share price, its larger production base and greater gold price exposure should see its balance sheet strengthen more quickly than previously expected. We also see, for example, a lower cost of capital for the execution of the Tomingley Extension Project or the potential development of the North Molong Porphyry Project (NMPP). ALK is also in a stronger negotiating position for potential project partnerships or acquisitions.

Time to buy

The note reveals that Bell Potter has retained its buy rating on the ASX gold stock with an improved price target of $1.45.

Based on its current share price of $1.02, this implies potential upside of 42% for investors over the next 12 months.

Commenting on its buy recommendation, the broker said:

We transfer coverage and maintain our Buy recommendation on a slightly increased target price. Increased scale, margins, earnings and a higher gold price forecast are partially offset by the equity dilution of the merger and FY26 production guidance being slightly below our previous pro-forma estimates.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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