Why are Woodside shares expected to deliver double-digit returns?

Analysts see Woodside's US gas interests as delivering good value.

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Key points

  • Woodside owns a major liquefied natural gas project in the US.
  • Jarden analysts expect the company to sell down stakes to mitigate its risk.
  • The company is expected to deliver better than 10% total returns to shareholders.

Jarden analysts are forecasting double-digit returns for Woodside Energy Group (ASX: WDS) shareholders, with the company's US liquefied natural gas (LNG) interests seen as a good earner.

The Australian oil and gas major acquired Tellurian Inc in October 2024 for US$1.2 billion, with the key asset being the Driftwood LNG project in Louisiana.

Since then, Woodside has rapidly progressed the LNG project, renamed Woodside Louisiana LNG, signed up EPC contractor Bechtel in December 2024, sold a 40% stake in the infrastructure part of the project to Stonepeak and sanctioned a three-train, 16.5 million tonne per annum LNG development in April 2025.   

Jarden analysts said the US$17.5 billion project was targeting first gas production in 2029, and Woodside would look to sell stakes in part of the project.

Risk mitigation is now the main near-term priority, in our view, via equity sell-down, locking in upstream gas supplies and LNG contracts. Woodside may have a great project here, but … equity sell down will provide more balance-sheet flexibility to ride out a sustained period of lower oil and LNG prices, pursue other growth opportunities and/or increase shareholder returns.

Jarden analysts have an overweight rating on Woodside shares and a price target of $26.10, compared with the current price of $24.60.

They are expecting a total shareholder return of 13.4%, with 7.5% from the share price and 5.9% from the dividend.

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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