NextDC Ltd (ASX: NXT) shares have been on a tear since plumbing to multi-year closing lows of $10.04 on 7 April.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) data centre operator and developer closed yesterday trading for $17.54. As we head into the Wednesday lunch hour, shares are changing hands for $17.63 apiece, up 0.5%.
That comes on a day where the ASX 200 is down 0.6%.
As for the remarkable rally since 7 April, NextDC shares are now up 75.6% since then.
And it's that blistering rally that has MPC Markets' Mark Gardner calling time on the ASX 200 AI share (courtesy of The Bull).
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Time to cash in gains on NextDC shares?
"NXT operates a network of data centres," said Gardner, who has a sell recommendation on NextDC shares.
The company reported its FY 2025 results on 29 August.
Drilling into those results, Gardner said:
The company lifted total revenue to $427.2 million in fiscal year 2025, an increase of 6% on the prior corresponding period. Total operating costs of $133.8 million were up 28%. It reported a loss after tax of $60.5 million.
As for the rallying share price, he noted, "The shares have risen from $13.99 on August 26 to trade at $17.335 on September 11."
And he believes that big run higher could see NextDC shares retrace in the months ahead.
According to Gardner:
In our view, the company is priced beyond perfection, with its valuation hinging on relentless artificial intelligence-driven demand.
Any slowing in AI demand, possibly in response to companies deferring investments due to global economic uncertainty, leaves NXT exposed to a correction. We would be inclined to cash in some gains at these levels.
What is the ASX 200 AI stock forecasting for FY 2026?
Investor enthusiasm for NextDC shares looks to have been partly stoked by the company's FY 2026 guidance.
Management forecast FY 2026 net revenue will be in the range of $390 million to $400 million. That's up 11.3% to 14.2% from FY 2025, if guidance is met.
Management also expects underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to increase in FY 2026. Guidance of $230 million to $240 million represents an increase of 6% to 11% year on year.
"FY26 will be a landmark year for NextDC as we make strategic investments to expand our platform, positioning us at the forefront of the digital infrastructure boom driven by the fourth industrial revolution," NextDC CEO Craig Scroggie said.
NextDC shares closed up 17.4% on 29 August, the day the company reported its full-year results and guidance.
