It wasn't a great day for New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC) shares on Wednesday.
The ASX 200 mining stock ended the session 8% lower at $4.20.
Is this a buying opportunity for investors? Let's see what one leading broker is saying about the coal miner.
Is it time to buy this ASX 200 mining stock?
Bell Potter notes that the miner released its FY 2025 results this week and delivered a profit below expectations. However, offsetting this disappointment was a larger than expected dividend. It said:
NHC reported FY25 underlying EBITDA of $766m (pre-reported) and statutory NPAT of $439m (BP est. $500m), on higher than expected net finance and tax expenses. A final 15cps fully franked dividend ($126m) was declared, bringing total FY25 dividends to 34cps (BP est. 29cps), a 65% payout of reported NPAT.
The broker also highlights that the mining stock has slowed down its buy back in response to a higher share price. It adds:
NHC have slowed progression of the share buy-back following the recent share price rise. Since April 2025, NHC have bought back 2.5m shares ($9.1m) as part of a $100m allocation. At 31 July 2025, NHC held cash and fixed income investments of $707m and debt (inc. leases) of $359m, for net cash (inc. leases) of $348m.
Earnings downgrades
In response to the results, Bell Potter has trimmed its earnings estimates for FY 2026. This is to reflect lower than expected production at New Acland, partially offset by strong cost control. The broker explains:
We have tapered our FY26-28 New Acland production outlook with rail constraints across the West Moreton rail corridor and Brisbane metropolitan network expected to persist. However, we anticipate NHC's strong cost control to continue, following FY25 group unit costs of A$84/t, down 8% YoY despite weather events that significantly impacted NHC's rail and port operations.
We have lowered our New Acland sales and cost outlook, and updated our model for the latest Malabar Resources update. EPS changes in this report are: FY26: -9%; FY27 +2%; and FY28 +12%.
Hold recommendation retained
In light of the above, the broker has retained its hold rating and $4.10 price target on the ASX 200 mining stock. This is a touch lower than where it currently trades. It concludes:
NHC's low-cost operations will continue to underpin margins through the coal price cycle, funding capital expenditure commitments and supporting strong shareholder returns. Beyond ramp-up of New Acland Stage 3, we see a limited organic production growth pipeline and believe NHC may participate in industry consolidation.
