This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.
Key Points
- Tesla has reached peak sales, according to one analyst.
- The company is focusing on its Cybercab, set for 2026 production.
- Even a second-generation Roadster is still in the plans.
"Elon has reached peak Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) sales, and he knows it," said Karl Brauer, executive analyst at iSeeCars, according to Automotive News. "I predict minimal investment in his current product, except in the area of self-driving tech."
Peak Tesla? You know what they say: When it rains, it pours, and investors have been in the middle of a thunderstorm all year. Tesla has hit a number of speed bumps, including backlash facing Elon Musk and his political tour, declining sales and profits, the end of the $7,500 federal tax credit and disappearing zero-emission credit sales, mounting lawsuits, increased competition from advanced and affordable Chinese vehicles -- you name it, it probably went against Tesla's favor.
So, is it finally time to give up on Tesla?
Not so fast
There's no question Tesla is in a transition period of sorts, evolving from the electric vehicle (EV) maker investors knew and loved into a robotaxi operator offering ride-hailing services at low prices -- and potentially a robotics and artificial intelligence (AI) company to boot.
Right now, Tesla's focus has zeroed in on a couple of different developments. First, the Cybercab is set for production in 2026, and Musk has previously said it will serve the robotaxi fleet and go on sale with a sub-$30,000 price tag at retail. It's a dedicated two-door autonomous vehicle that allegedly won't have human controls, such as steering wheel or foot pedals, per the company at its 2024 unveiling.
That said, Tesla has made a habit of overpromising and underdelivering, which has set up a healthy amount of skepticism. "I have to think that autonomy is further away than a lot of people expect," said Sam Fiorani, vice president of global forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions, according to Automotive News. "By 2030, you're still going to have a steering wheel and a driver. Even in Teslas."
Tesla's primary goal with the Cybercab is simply to create a robotaxi with the lowest cost per mile of operation -- a simple idea that will be easier said than done. Through efficiency, slower acceleration, and lower top speed, among other factors, Tesla hopes to achieve a target cost of under $0.30 per mile of operation.
What else is in store?
Aside from the Cybercab, Tesla still has other developments to focus on in the near term. These developments include a plan to address affordability by launching a stripped-down Model Y crossover during the fourth quarter, which could help offset the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit.
It's not quite a new Tesla model with a sticker price around $25,000, as has been promised in the past, but shifting plans to modify current models for affordability rather than create a new nameplate was likely the right move -- Tesla needs to be more competitive on price, and quickly.
Tesla is also planning a second-generation Roadster, which was first promised to be in production as long ago as 2020, but is now expected within the next couple of years. Last, and perhaps least, Tesla is opening a factory next year dedicated to its often-forgotten Semi tractor trailer.
What it all means
While investors might have raised an eyebrow at that staggering announcement Tesla dropped on the market about a new compensation agreement for Elon Musk, potentially worth up to $1 trillion, the truth is that Tesla needs the best version of Elon Musk over the next decade. Tesla faces slowing sales in key markets, consumer backlash in the U.S. and Europe, and intense competition in China that has swallowed foreign automakers whole amid a brutal price war.
Tesla has its work cut out for it, no doubt. But if Musk can refocus his priorities on Tesla, even if it costs the company in compensation, it could position the EV maker to evolve more over the next decade than anyone imagined possible -- think robotaxi services, robotics, and AI.
We could be watching the beginning of a slow-motion train wreck, or the beginning of one of the best investments in our lifetime. Because the latter is still possible, it's not yet time to give up on Tesla.
This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.
