3 reasons why the BHP share price could be a buy

BHP could still be a really good investment for a few reasons.

| More on:
Three businesspeople leap high with the CBD in the background.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • BHP's strategic shift towards copper, driven by rising global demand and challenges in sourcing high-quality deposits, aims to enhance its long-term profitability.
  • The recent increase in iron ore prices could boost BHP's earnings, with plans to expand production promising further profitability gains.
  • BHP's Jansen potash project in Canada adds a low-cost, high-quality asset to its portfolio, reducing reliance on iron ore and enhancing the company's appeal.

Buying at the current BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price could be attractive for investors wanting exposure to the ASX mining share.

As the chart below shows, the company is not that close to its 52-week low, but it could still be a good investment at the current valuation for a few different reasons.

However, the current valuation is 5% lower than where it was at the end of August, which is a fairly sizeable drop for a company that has a market capitalisation of around $200 billion. This could be the right time to pounce for interested investors.

Let's get into the positive reasons why it could be a good investment for the long-term at this level.

Copper exposure

BHP has made a significant effort over the last few years to expand its copper portfolio, which I think is a great move because of the global demand for copper (not just from China). Plus, the outlook for copper demand and the copper price looks compelling.

Copper demand is expected to rise in the coming years thanks to electrification, with electricity grid expansion and electric vehicles being two key drivers.

However, it is reportedly increasingly difficult to find high-grade, quality copper deposits, which may help lead to higher copper prices in the coming years.

While BHP was unsuccessful in its attempt to buy Anglo American, it would not surprise me if the business aims to make other copper acquisitions in the coming years to boost its scale.

I believe copper will become a larger part of BHP's profit generation in the coming years. It has an aspiration to double production from its Copper SA business in the coming years.

Iron ore price

Iron ore has been the key earnings generator for the company over the years, making it integral for the BHP share price. It could still be, depending what happens with the resource price.

The iron ore price has jumped to US$105 per tonne recently, an increase of around US$10 per tonne over the past two months, according to Trading Economics.

Mining companies' profitability is heavily exposed to fluctuations in commodity prices. Production costs don't typically change much month to month or even year to year for miners, so changes in the revenue per tonne can significantly add to (or take away from) the net profit.

If the iron ore price stabilises or even rises from here, I think BHP's monthly iron ore earnings can be pleasing and possibly grow materially.  

The business is aiming to grow its iron ore production in the years ahead and this could help increase this division's profitability.

Potash diversification

I like that the business already generates earnings from multiple commodities – copper, iron ore and coal. It's looking to open another growth avenue with potash, which is seen as a greener form of fertiliser.

It has a project called Jansen that it's working on in Canada. BHP says Jansen is set to be a high-quality, low-cost asset with strong free cash flow conversion once ramped up. The unit cost once ramped up is set up to be US$105 per tonne to US$120 per tonne.

The estimated capital expenditure cost of this project is between US$7 billion to US$7.4 billion – it's a major project. First production is estimated for mid-2027. Having another commodity as part of its line-up is good for reducing the risk of being too exposed to one resource (like iron ore) and makes the BHP share price more appealing.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Opinions

two people sit side by side on a rollercoaster ride with their hands raised in the air and happy smiles on their faces
Opinions

Up over 200% in 6 months: Are Pilbara Minerals shares still a buy?

How high can the lithium producer’s shares go?

Read more »

Two young boys sit at a desk wearing helmets with lightbulbs, indicating two ASX 200 shares that a broker has recommended as buys today
Opinions

The best stocks to invest $1,000 in right now

I'd be happy to pick up more of these winners right now.

Read more »

A woman sits on sofa pondering a question.
Opinions

Best ASX retail stock to buy right now: Wesfarmers or Woolworths?

Here's my pick between the two retail powerhouses.

Read more »

A bearded man holds both arms up diagonally and points with his index fingers to the sky with a thrilled look on his face over these rising Tassal share price
Opinions

4 ASX shares I'd buy today with $10,000

I think these shares are set to soar.

Read more »

A man in his 30s with a clipped beard sits at his laptop on a desk with one finger to the side of his face and his chin resting on his thumb as he looks concerned while staring at his computer screen.
Opinions

Is it time to sell your Wesfarmers shares?

The stock crashed 15% in October.

Read more »

A woman looks nonplussed as she holds up a handful of Australian $50 notes.
Opinions

Westpac versus CBA shares: Which bank is a better buy for 2026?

Are you weighing up buying shares in these two banking giants?

Read more »

A woman sits on a chair smiling as she shops online.
Opinions

Down 30% this year. Are Block shares finally a buy?

Here's what's ahead for the company over the next 12 months.

Read more »

A trendy woman wearing sunglasses splashes cash notes from her hands.
Opinions

3 of the best ASX 200 shares to buy right now!

These stocks have strong long-term growth potential.

Read more »