The US Federal Reserve is set to resume rate cuts next week, AMP chief economist Dr Shane Oliver says, which will increase the likelihood of more rate cuts in Australia.
Dr Oliver said on Friday that, given US inflation was in line with expectations, the final hurdle for another rate cut should have been overcome.
Core CPI inflation at 3.1% year on year (yoy) in August is consistent with core private final consumption inflation running around 2.9%yoy. This is higher than the Fed's 2% target and upside risks remain on the tariff front, but the Fed will take comfort that inflation expectations mostly remain well anchored and increasing signs of labour market weakness are now dominating concerns about the impact of the tariffs.
How deep will they cut?
Dr Oliver said AMP expected the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, with a 20% chance of a 50 basis points cut.
He is also expecting two more cuts this year and another two next year.
For Australia, the Fed's likely resumption of rate cuts is positive for the Australian dollar and will marginally increase pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) for more rate cuts. The RBA has cut official interest rates three times so far this year, each time by 25 basis points.
Dr Oliver said historically, when there was an increasing gap between Australian and US rates, the Australian dollar tended to trend higher, "and its break above 66 US cents may be a tentative sign that it is moving higher".
Since the GFC the RBA has not always moved rates in line with the Fed, e.g. in 2009 it started hiking when the Fed held rates low and over 2016-2018 it held rates down as the Fed hiked so just because the Fed is easing doesn't mean that the RBA will blindly follow. But if the $A heads significantly higher this may add pressure on the RBA to cut by more than the market is expecting because a rising $A will dampen local growth and inflation.
How will the share market react?
Dr Oliver said AMP's near-term view "remains positive for shares as Trump continues to pivot towards more market friendly policies, the Fed starts cutting rates again and other central banks including the RBA continue to cut".
However, various risks meant there was a high possibility of a correction during the seasonally weak month of September.
Risk factors included that valuations remain stretched, there was still considerable uncertainty around the Trump tariffs, and there was a "high risk" of a US government shutdown in September.
And once the Fed cuts on Wednesday, if its perceived as still being a bit cautious on how much to cut in the face of the tariffs still feeding through to inflation then it could be a case of 'buy on the rumour (of Fed rate cuts) and then sell on the fact' for shares.
Wilsons Advisory recently called out development company Stockland Corp Limited (ASX: SGP) and KFC-owner Collins Foods Limited (ASX: CKF) as likely beneficiaries should rates be cut.
