If you aren't averse to investing in the mining sector, then it could be worth checking out the ASX mining stock in this article.
That's because the team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) believes it could be destined to deliver market-beating returns over the next 12 months.
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Which ASX mining stock?
The stock that analysts at Macquarie are tipping as a buy is Aeris Resources Ltd (ASX: AIS).
It is a mid-tier base and precious metals producer with a copper-dominant portfolio. This comprises four operating assets, a long-life development project, and a highly prospective exploration portfolio.
Macquarie notes that Aeris Resources underperformed in FY 2025 and fell short of the market's expectations. However, it was pleased to see the company deliver on its earnings estimates and, importantly, return to profit. It said:
AIS generated Ebitda of A$164m which was 11% below Visible Alpha (VA), but 4% above MQe. On an adjusted Ebitda basis, AIS's Ebitda was A$180m which would have been closer to VA estimates. Higher D&A and taxation expenses drove a NPAT miss of A$45m which was 40%/15% below VA/MQe expectations. AIS marked a return to profitability with FY24 generating losses of A$24m, versus profits of A $45m in FY25.
There were no surprises with its guidance for FY 2026, which was pre-released. Macquarie continues to expect the ASX mining stock to deliver towards the low end of its guidance range. It explains:
FY26 guidance previously released: AIS has already released production guidance of 24-29kt Cu (MQe 24.9kt) and 44-56koz of Au (MQe 46.8koz) at total operating costs of A$329-402m (MQe A$373m) and we take a conservative stance to guidance. FY25 result was predominantly backward-looking.
Market-beating returns
According to the note, Macquarie has retained its outperform rating and 28 cents price target on the ASX mining stock.
Based on its current share price of 22 cents, this implies potential upside of 27% over the next 12 months.
Commenting on its outperform recommendation, the broker said:
Outperform: FY26 financials marked a return to profitability for AIS, and the company is trading at a discount to peers at a FY26/27 EV/Ebitda of 2.2/2.3x).
Valuation: Maintain A$0.28 TP. Our TP methodology of 50/50 blend of NPV and 4.0x EV/EBITDA is unchanged. Catalysts: Ongoing exploration results (throughout FY26) and QLD sale update (late-CY25). Updates regarding development of the Constellation project at Tritton (last FY26) is also a catalyst.
