Up 108% in a year, can Evolution Mining shares keep blasting higher in FY26?

A leading expert delivers his verdict on the outlook for the surging Evolution Mining share price.

| More on:
Woman with gold nuggets on her hand.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

If you bought Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) shares a year ago, you'll have seen that investment more than double already.

During the Friday lunch hour, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stock are up 0.6%, changing hands for $8.55 apiece.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.3% at this same time. 

This outperformance is par for the course for Evolution Mining shares, which have benefited from a surging gold price alongside the miner's own operational successes. 

Indeed, at $8.55, shares in the gold miner are now up 101.7% from the $4.20 per share they were trading at 12 months ago.

And that's not including Evolution Mining's dividends.

Over the year, Evolution Mining has paid (or shortly will pay) a total of 20 cents per share in fully franked dividends. This sees the ASX 200 stock trading on a 2.3% dividend yield (part trailing, part pending). And it brings the past 12 months' accumulated gains to 108.3%.

Or enough to turn a $5,000 investment into $10,417. In one year.

Boom!

The final dividend of 13 cents per share is still up for grabs, by the way. If you're looking to bank that passive income, you'll need to own the stock at market close on 2 September. Evolution Mining shares trade ex-dividend on 3 September.

But with this blistering performance already behind it, can the gold stock keep outperforming in FY 2026?

Evolution Mining shares: Buy, hold, or sell?

For some greater insight into that question, we defer to Ord Minnett's Tony Paterno (courtesy of The Bull).

"The gold miner posted an underlying profit after tax of $958 million in full year 2025, up 99% on the prior corresponding period," Paterno said, explaining why investors have been piling into Evolution Mining shares.

"Gold production was up 5% and copper increased 12%," he said.

In other strong growth metrics, the ASX 200 gold stock reported record-setting underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $2.21 billion, up 46% from the prior year.

But Paterno voiced concerns over the rapid share price gains.

"EVN shares rose from $4.84 on January 2 to close at $9.22 on June 4. The shares were trading at $8.075 on August 21," he said.

And for that reason, Paterno has a sell recommendation on Evolution Mining shares.

"In our view, the stock is trading at a significant premium to peers. We would be inclined to take a profit at these levels as the share price leaves little room for error," he concluded.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Gold

a woman wearing a sparkly strapless dress leans on a neat stack of six gold bars as she smiles and looks to the side as though she is very happy and protective of her stash. She also has gold fingernails and gold glitter pieces affixed to her cheeks.
Gold

Bonanza gold grades have sent this junior explorer's shares soaring

This exploration company has reported spectacular gold results from drilling at one of its South Australian projects.

Read more »

A few gold nullets sit on an old-fashioned gold scale, representing ASX gold shares.
Gold

St Barbara announces $470 million worth of deals to bolster its expansion plans

St Barbara has announced two major deals which will help fund the expansion of its flagship gold project in Papua…

Read more »

A man leaps from a stack of gold coins to the next, each one higher than the last.
Broker Notes

Up 131% since February, why this ASX All Ords gold share is forecast to more than double again

A leading broker expects this surging ASX gold stock to leap another 150%. But why?

Read more »

Man in mining hat with fists raised and eyes closed looking happy and excited about the Newcrest share price
Gold

Up 106% in 2025, ASX All Ords gold stock lifting today on 1.2-million-ounce reserve boost

The ASX All Ords gold share has more than doubled investors’ money this year. Here’s what’s happening today.

Read more »

Calculator and gold bars on Australian dollars, symbolising dividends.
Gold

Guess which ASX 200 gold stock is jumping 10% on $250m shareholder return

This gold miner is swimming in cash and plans to return some to shareholders.

Read more »

gold share price represented by speeding golden bullet
Broker Notes

Why this surging ASX All Ords gold stock is tipped to rocket another 233%

A leading broker expects outsized gains from this ASX All Ords gold stock. But not without risk.

Read more »

Person holding out eight gold medals.
Gold

After smashing 50 record highs in 2025, what's ahead for the gold price and ASX gold shares like Northern Star in 2026?

The World Gold Council outlines its outlook for the record-setting gold price in 2026.

Read more »

A man leaps from a stack of gold coins to the next, each one higher than the last.
Broker Notes

Up 300% this year, 3 reasons to buy this ASX All Ords gold stock today

A leading broker sees further ‘clear upside’ potential for this rocketing ASX gold stock.

Read more »