Top broker says this ASX 200 share can deliver a 15% return

Bell Potter is feeling bullish about this stock. But why?

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The Australian share market has historically delivered a return in the region of 10% per annum.

But you don't have to settle for that.

Not when there are ASX 200 shares out there being tipped to generate even bigger returns.

Which ASX 200 share?

One share that could beat the market according to analysts at Bell Potter is Imdex Ltd (ASX: IMD).

It is a global provider of end-to-end mining product technology solutions. This includes proprietary products and technologies for mining exploration and development.

Bell Potter was pleased with the ASX 200 share's performance during FY 2025 given the tricky trading conditions. It said:

MD reported a resilient FY25 financial update amid challenging market conditions. Revenue was $431m (BPe $420m; VA $426m), down 3% YoY, uEBITDA was $126m (BPe $124m; VA $128m), down 3% YoY, and uNPAT was $43.2m (BPe $45.3m; VA $47.8m), down 8% YoY. The NPAT miss was largely due to a higher net interest expense than forecast. The robust 4Q FY25 Group revenue performance (strongest 4Q performance on record) was the key takeaway. ARPU and sensors on hire have exited FY25 low-to-mid-single digit higher than the PcP.

Looking ahead, the broker highlights that management's commentary has turned more upbeat, which bodes well for its performance in FY 2026. It said:

We have observed a noticeable shift in outlook commentary sentiment, with underlying exploration demand now expected to grow, partly due to rising demand for near-mine and brownfield exploration drilling. IMD is well-positioned to continue delivering robust revenue growth from Krux Analytics and Datarock (+86% and +63% growth in FY25, respectively) in FY26. Lastly, IMD remain focussed on deploying capital towards R&D and further acquisitions.

Buy recommendation

In response to the results, the broker has retained its buy rating on the ASX 200 share with an improved price target of $3.90 (from $3.05).

Based on its current share price of $3.43, this implies potential upside of approximately 14% for investors.

In addition, it is expecting a 1% dividend yield in FY 2026, taking the total potential return to 15%.

Commenting on its buy recommendation, Bell Potter said:

While IMD's FY26 PE multiple of 30.8x is elevated compared with historical levels and prior cycle-peaks, we acknowledge IMD's propensity to deliver robust improvements in profitability from operating leverage. FY25 exit rates are highly encouraging, and with a backdrop of increasing exploration activity, we would anticipate IMD's operating leverage to be a key driver of forthcoming consensus upgrades. We reiterate the Buy recommendation.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Imdex. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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