Why this $8 billion ASX 200 energy stock just crashed 10%

Investors are punishing the ASX 200 energy share today. But why?

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S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy stock Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL) is having a day to forget today.

As are the company's shareholders.

Shares in the coal miner closed yesterday trading for $6.22. In earlier trade, shares just crashed to $5.60, down 10.0%. After some likely bargain hunting, shares are changing hands for $5.71 apiece at the time of writing, down 8.3%.

With 1.32 billion shares outstanding, that gives the ASX 200 energy stock a current market cap of $7.5 billion.

Today's sharp sell-down follows on Yancoal's half-year results for the six months to 30 June (H1 2025), released after market close yesterday.

Here's what's got investors spooked.

ASX 200 energy share crushed on plunging revenue

Yancoal reported a number of positive metrics for the half-year.

Those included a 16% year-on-year increase in run of mine (ROM) coal production to 32.2 million tonnes (on a 100% basis).

Saleable production of 24.8 million tonnes (on a 100% basis) was up 15% from H1 2024. And attributable saleable coal production of 18.9 million tonnes was up 11%, which management noted came in above their mid-point full year guidance range on an annualised basis.

But the ASX 200 energy stock is under selling pressure today with revenue for the half year slumping 15% from H1 2024 to $2.68 billion.

Yancoal said this was driven by a 15% decrease in its realised coal price to $149 per tonne and a 2% decrease in attributable sales volume. Sales volumes were hampered by weather-related rail and port interruptions, which saw sales delayed to the second half.

In other core financial metrics, operating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) came in at $595 million, down 40% year on year. And profit after tax of $163 million was down a precipitous 61%.

That's despite the ASX 200 energy stock achieving an 8% year-on-year reduction in operating cash cost to $93 per tonne, excluding government royalties.

On the passive income front, the board declared a fully franked interim dividend of 6.2 cents per share.

Yancoal had a cash balance of $1.8 billion as at 30 June.

What did management say?

Commenting on the results pressuring the ASX 200 energy stock today, acting CEO Ning Yue said, "We are potentially tracking to have a full-year result with production at the upper end of guidance and our cash operating costs below the mid-point of guidance."

Yue added:

During the past six months, we observed elevated global supply and subdued demand in both the thermal and metallurgical coal markets…

Some supply-side responses to the lower coal prices are beginning to emerge, which aligns with our view that coal indices are presently below marginal cost on the global cost curve. We anticipate further supply-side reductions from higher-cost producers, contributing to a potential recovery in coal price indices, similar to previous coal price cycles.

What's ahead for the ASX 200 energy stock?

Looking at what could impact the Yancoal share price in the months ahead, the ASX 200 energy stock provided full-year 2025 guidance of 35 million tonnes to 39 million tonnes attributable saleable production.

The miner forecasts $89 to $97 per tonne in cash operating costs.

And attributable capital expenditure is expected to be in the range of $750 million to $900 million. Yancoal said it's on track to fall within guidance after spending $407 million in the first half of 2025.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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