The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is unlikely to surge 32% over the coming year, but this promising ASX 200 stock just might.
That's according to the team over at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), who threw the spotlight on Amcor PLC (ASX: AMC) shares following the release of the company's fourth-quarter (Q4 FY 2025) results on Friday.
With quarterly earnings growth falling short of lofty consensus expectations, investors responded to the results by sending the Amcor share price to close down 9.7% on Friday.
Shares in the global packaging giant remained under pressure on Monday, closing down 3.02% yesterday at $13.19 a share. That sees Amcor shares down 16% in a year, and gives the company a market cap of $30.41 billion.
Now, those losses will have been somewhat mitigated by the 78.6 cents per share in dividends the ASX 200 stock has paid out over the last 12 months.
Unlike most ASX dividend shares, Amcor pays out dividends on a quarterly basis rather than twice a year. At Monday's closing price, the stock trades on an unfranked trailing dividend yield of 5.96%.
With that in mind, here's why Macquarie expects a big turnaround in FY 2026.
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Why this ASX 200 stock could rocket into 2026
Amcor completed its all-stock acquisition of the United States-based packaging company Berry Global on 30 April.
That acquisition helped drive quarterly net sales for the ASX 200 stock of US$5.08 billion, up 43% year over year, excluding currency impacts.
Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for the three months also increased by 43% to US$789 million.
As I mentioned up top, those earnings fell short of most analyst expectations, with Macquarie noting that earnings per share (EPS) of 20.0 cents per share was 5% below its forecasts of 21.0 cents per share.
But Macquarie expects a better year ahead, noting:
Berry synergies are on track with 35% of Year 1 synergies ($260m) expected in 1H26 and rest in 2H as synergy capture ramps up. AMC has a good record re synergy delivery and over-delivered on prior large acquisitions (eg Alcan, Bemis).
The broker added that it believes the ASX 200 stock "is cheap" on an 11.0 times FY 2026 estimated price to earnings (PE) ratio and the 5.9% dividend yield.
And Macquarie noted that Amcor expects to double its free cash flow in FY 2026 in the range of $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion, with Macquarie forecasting free cash flow of $1.87 billion.
Connecting the dots, Macquarie said the market "reacted harshly" to Amcor's 5% Q4 EPS miss on Friday.
The broker has an outperform rating on the ASX 200 stock, while lowering its 12-month target price to $17.46 a share.
That represents a potential upside of 32% from Monday's closing price. And it doesn't include those upcoming quarterly dividends.
