Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) shares are up 0.27% to $12.81 on Tuesday, while the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is down 0.57%.
Last week, the electricity retailer reported its full-year FY25 results, revealing a higher statutory profit and a boosted dividend.
Top broker Macquarie has reviewed the report and re-valued the stock with a new rating and 12-month price target.
Let's find out what Macquarie thinks of Origin Energy shares post-results.
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Can Origin Energy shares keep rising in FY26?
Origin Energy reported a statutory profit: $1.481 billion, up from $1.397 billion in FY24.
The underlying profit also rose by $307 million to $1,490 billion.
Underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) was $3.411 million, down from $3.528 billion in FY24.
Origin Energy shares will pay a fully franked final dividend of 30 cents per share, up from 27.5 cents per share for FY24.
The full-year dividend for FY25 is 60 cents per share compared to 55 cents per share in FY24.
Investors were impressed by the numbers, with the share price rising by 6.33% on the day of the report.
Origin stock hit an 11-year high the following day.
Here's what Macquarie thinks
In a new note, Macquarie maintained its neutral rating on Origin Energy after reviewing the company's FY25 results.
Macquarie has been neutral-rated on the ASX 200 utilities share since January, when the broker downgraded it from outperform.
The broker has raised its 12-month share price target from $10.94 to $11.34.
However, this implies a potential downside of 11.5% for investors who buy Origin Energy shares today.
The broker commented:
FY25 held few surprises with the quarterly rebasing APLNG expectations.
EM exceeded guidance with a strong trading 4th quarter, Octopus was softer largely reflecting one-offs, with core value driver customer numbers continuing.
Cash generation was strong with positives from LGC unwinds offsetting the outsized tax paid.
Macquarie is keen to see what happens with Octopus Energy.
One-offs and a/c resulted in a loss, but fundamental makers like profit/retail customer and Kraken ARR/customer grew.
Conversion of Kraken to a separate entity is the focus.
The timing of separation/capital raise is significant, with separation first, then capital raise providing ORG the decision to grow its interest in OE.
Overall, Macquarie thinks Origin Energy is trading at a premium, with the Kraken initial public offering (IPO) already priced in.
The broker said:
ORG looks to be pricing much of the Kraken IPO into the share price already.
Core assets like EM market and APLNG valuation outlook appears flat.
Origin Energy price snapshot
Origin Energy shares have risen 29% over the past 12 months.
