Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares are marching higher today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining stock closed yesterday trading for $19.66. In early afternoon trade on Wednesday, shares are swapping hands for $19.87 apiece, up 1.1%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.7% at this same time.
After hitting multi-year closing lows on 9 April, things took a sharp turn for the better following the miner's record-setting fourth-quarter results, released on 24 June.
In fact, if you'd bought Fortescue shares at market close on 23 June, you'd now be sitting on gains of 35.2%.
Longer term, the ASX mining stock is up 9.4% since this time last year.
Atop those capital gains, Fortescue paid a total of $1.39 in fully franked dividends over the 12 months. At the current share price, that sees Fortescue stock trading on a fully franked trailing dividend yield of 7.0%.
Yet very few larger fund managers have been investing in the stock.
Not so, Michael Bell, chief investment officer of Solaris Investment Management.
Image source: Getty Images
The bull case for Fortescue shares
As The Australian Financial Review reported, analysis of actively managed Australian equity funds revealed only a single fund manager disclosing "a substantial position" in Fortescue shares last year.
But with Bell forecasting strong dividend support for Fortescue and an iron ore price floor around US$90 per tonne, he said Solaris now holds "a pretty decent position" in the ASX 200 mining stock.
The iron ore price has been holding above US$100 per tonne recently, most recently priced at US$104.40 per tonne.
That's still well down from the US$140 per tonne in early 2024, which Bell noted put Fortescue shares in the too pricey basket at the time.
"We watched Fortescue go near $30 last year when iron ore was at $140 a tonne, and it was too expensive for us at those levels," Bell said (quoted by the AFR).
Citing some of the other difficulties embroiling the miner at the time, he added:
At the time, there was too much hubris and governance concerns, particularly with the string of management departures, and they were planning to invest a lot of shareholders money in offshore jurisdictions that we thought posed way too much risk.
But the iron ore price then dropped to around US$92 per tonne by the end of June this year, sending Fortescue shares to multi-year lows.
Bell said that when iron ore regained US$100 per tonne, and with Fortescue founder Andrew Forrest pulling back on the company's capex heavy green hydrogen goals, it was time to buy.
"The balance sheet is great. The management churn has slowed a lot. So at around $15 to $16, it started looking pretty good," he said.
