Investors in manganese producer Jupiter Mines Ltd (ASX: JMS) have had plenty to smile about so far in 2025.
The company's share price has rocketed from $0.14 per share at the start of January to $0.22 apiece at the time of writing.
This equates to a 57% surge in just over seven months.
Not too shabby at all!
For context, the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) is up by about 7.3% during the same period.
But is there any fuel left in the tank for Jupiter's share price?
Analysts at renowned investment house Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) have weighed in with their views on this little-known ASX mining stock.
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Established manganese miner
Manganese is best known for its role in steel production, where it's used in ferroalloys to enhance hardness and strength.
However, it is also gaining importance in the lithium-ion battery supply chain, especially for electric vehicles (EVs) and energy storage.
Jupiter holds a 49.9% stake in the Tshipi manganese mine in South Africa, positioning the group as the world's largest publicly listed pure-play manganese miner.
Tshipi has been in production since 2012 and still remains one of the longest-life manganese mines globally.
And late last week, Jupiter unveiled its activities report for the fourth quarter of FY25.
Let's find out what Macquarie analysts thought of the news.
What caught Macquarie's eye?
The broker noted that mine production during the quarter came in 5% below its expectations.
However, this was offset by stronger-than-expected sales volumes, which beat Macquarie's forecast by 31%.
This translated into a strong quarterly performance with operating earnings (EBITDA) of $40.9 million, clocking in well ahead of Macquarie's $24 million estimate.
Net profit after tax (NPAT) also surprised to the upside by reaching $25.9 million – more than double what the broker had forecast.
That said, Macquarie took a cautious tone regarding the manganese market.
It pointed to a soft price environment for the metal with realised manganese prices coming in 4% lower than in the previous three-month period.
So what's the upside?
Macquarie sees limited upside for Jupiter's share price despite placing an outperform rating on the company.
Its 12-month price target of $0.23 per share represents a modest 4.5% premium to the miner's trading price of $0.22, at the time of writing.
However, Jupiter's full-year results in late August could be a welcome event for shareholders, with the ASX miner set to reveal its FY25 dividend.
Macquarie is projecting a final payout of 7.5 cents per share, which would equate to a healthy 7.2% dividend yield.
