Credit Corp shares surged 16% on Tuesday. Here's what Macquarie forecasts now

Up 52% since April, what's Macquarie forecasting for Credit Corp shares in the year ahead?

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If you were watching the big gainers charts yesterday, you'll know Credit Corp Group Ltd (ASX: CCP) shares lit up the boards.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) debt collection company closed up a whopping 16.2% on Tuesday, trading for $17.73 apiece.

As we head into the lunch hour today, shares are up another 0.6%, changing hands for $17.84 each.

That means brave investors who followed Warren Buffett's advice to be greedy when others are fearful and bought Credit Corp shares at their one-year lows of $11.74 on 9 April will be sitting on gains of 52.0% today.

Taking a step back, the shares in the ASX 200 debt collector are up 18.5% since this time last year.

Although that doesn't include the 68 cents a share in fully franked dividends Credit Corp paid out over the full year.

At the current share price, that sees the stock trading on a fully franked dividend yield (part trailing, part pending) of 3.8%.

The final dividend of 36 cents per share is still up for grabs. If you'd like to score that passive income, you'll need to own shares at market close on 12 September. Credit Corp stock trades ex-dividend on 15 September.

We'll take a look at what Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) forecasts for the ASX 200 stock following yesterday's big run higher in a tick.

But first…

What sent Credit Corp shares soaring on Tuesday?

ASX investors sent Credit Corp shares flying higher yesterday following the company's full-year FY 2025 results.

Highlights included a 5% year-on-year increase in revenue to $545.6 million and a 16% increase in net profit after tax (NPAT) to $94.1 million.

This enabled management to boost Credit Corp's full-year dividend payout by 79% to 68 cents per share.

Commenting on the results that sent Credit Corp shares surging, CEO Thomas Beregi said:

We have diversified our purchasing across a range of sellers while focusing on lower balance products to improve cash conversion metrics and shorten the duration of our US book while conditions remain uncertain.

Looking ahead, the company provided FY 2026 guidance for NPAT in the range of $100 million to $110 million.

What's Macquarie's forecast for the ASX 200 stock now?

Following Tuesday's outsized gains, Macquarie has a neutral rating on the ASX 200 debt collector.

The broker said, "We believe the current share price captures the earnings outlook for the group, with a higher multiple (20x NPAT) applied to the US PDL [payday loan] segment to reflect the growth potential."

Macquarie has a 12-month price target of $18.23 on Credit Corp shares.

That implies a potential upside of 2.2% at the time of writing, not including those upcoming FY 2026 dividends.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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