If you are searching for a combination of exposure to gold and big returns, then the ASX mining stock in this article could be for you.
That's because the team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) believes this gold miner's shares are dirt cheap at current levels.
Which ASX gold mining stock?
The mining stock that Macquarie is bullish on is Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX: BGL).
While the broker acknowledges that management's guidance for FY 2026 was short of expectations, it appears to believe it is being conservative. It said:
FY26 guidance of 130-150koz at an AISC of A $2,600-2,900/oz was 6/7% lower on production (at the mid) vs. VA/ MQe, while AISC was 10%/6% higher. Production guidance is lower than the ~150koz indicated as part of the reset mine plan in Apr-25 and assumes conservative development rates of ~270m/jumbo/month which is 18% below the average achieved over June/July. BGL flags this as an opportunity to outperform.
Importantly, while Macquarie suspects that the mining stock could outperform its guidance, it hasn't factored this into its estimates. The broker adds:
FY26 guidance was acknowledged as being conservative and underpinned by lower development rates (~270m/m/jumbo) vs. what has most recently been delivered (~330m). With BGL having risked FY26 production, we view potential to outperform, but do not embed any upside into our valuation (we are aligned to the mids).
Attractive valuation
Overall, the broker believes that this ASX mining stock is cheap following significant share price weakness this year and thinks investors should take advantage of this.
It has reaffirmed its outperform rating on Bellevue Gold's shares with a trimmed price target of $1.25.
Based on its current share price of 83 cents, this implies potential upside of 50% for investors over the next 12 months.
Commenting on its outperform rating, the broker said:
Outperform. BGL's FY26 guidance was lower than expected. The company appears to be taking a conservative approach with current development rates seeing a potential beat. While the drop in reserves was a negative it was not surprising given BGL's recent focus on grade control.
Valuation: The weaker near-term outlook sees our target price cut 4% to A $1.25/sh. No change to our 50/50 blend of 1.2x NAV, 8x OCF methodology. Catalysts: Delivering FY26 guidance. Development rates are key. Conservative expectations could set BGL up for a FY26 beat (but not in our base case).
