The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price has had a strong 12 months, rising by approximately 30%, as the chart below shows. With its FY25 result getting close, the bank will probably need to report some solid numbers to justify its higher valuation.
During earnings season, the market normally responds to how a business compares to expectations rather than the actual number itself.
So, let's take a look at what the bank is expected to achieve when it releases its result on 13 August 2025.
FY25 expectations
The broker UBS is currently expecting growth for the key CBA financial metrics in FY25.
UBS is forecasting that CBA's revenue could rise by 3.6% to $28.17 billion.
The broker is suggesting that CBA's pre-tax profit could increase by 4.4% to $14.78 billion.
CBA's net profit could grow to $10.27 billion, with earnings per share (EPS) growth of 5.3% to $6.14. This would be the fastest growth rate among the major ASX bank shares, which include National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ), and Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC).
The EPS forecast means the current CBA share price is valued at approximately 29x FY25's estimated earnings.
After seeing the CBA FY25 third-quarter update, UBS thought the bank was on track to reach the FY25 estimates that the broker was expecting:
In our view, CBA's Q3 25 trading update was in line with mkt expectations, with CBA run rating strongly to deliver into FY25 consensus and UBS forecasts. Growth in proprietary channels within retail (68% of new business) is likely supporting retail profitability, while the bank continues to grow above system in business banking (1.3x). CBA remains disciplined around delivering positive jaws and growing PPOP, with mgmt. controlling a number of levers to drive this. LTM cash earnings at ~$10.1B, implies a return on Common Equity Tier 1 of ~17.8% (annualised).
In other words, CBA isn't relying on loan brokers for growth as much as other banks, helping margins. It's growing quickly in business banking, and it's doing well in ensuring good overall performance for its profit margins.
Is the CBA share price a buy before it reports?
UBS is not attracted to CBA shares right now, noting that the business is trading at a FY26 price-to-book (P/B) ratio of more than 3.5x, which is "significantly higher than its historical average."
The broker currently has a sell rating on the business, with a price target of $115. A price target suggests where the share price might be in 12 months from the time of the investment call, so UBS is implying the CBA share price could fall by around a third.
According to Commsec's collation of 15 analyst ratings on the business, there are 14 sell ratings and just one hold, with no buys.
Analysts are clearly feeling very negative on the CBA share price valuation right now, though that hasn't stopped the bank rising over the last few months. Either way, there are plenty of ASX shares that appeal to me more.
