The S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) did it again overnight.
And by 'it', I mean break into new all-time high territory.
After slipping into the red for much of the day, the benchmark US index staged an afternoon recovery to close up a slender 0.02% on Monday at 6,389.77 points.
Slender or not, that marks yet another new record for the S&P 500. The index is now up 17.0% since this time last year and has gained 95.3% over five years.
By comparison, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has gained 8.6% in a year and is up 46.3% in five years.
But with the US stock market already having surged to a series of new records, are we in bubble territory, or is there still time to be greedy?
For some greater insight into that million-dollar question, we defer to the strategists at Morgan Stanley (courtesy of The Australian Financial Review).
Can the S&P 500 keep charging higher into 2026?
Commenting on the S&P 500's record-setting year, Morgan Stanley equity strategist Michael Wilson said:
The capitulatory price action and earnings-per-share estimate cuts we saw in April of this year around Liberation Day represented the end of a rolling earnings recession that began in 2022.
Now, we appear to be transitioning to a rolling recovery backdrop aided by positive operating leverage, AI adoption, [US] dollar weakness, cash tax savings from the [recently passed Republican tax cut and spending bill], easy growth comparisons, pent-up demand for many sectors, and a high probability of Fed cuts by the first quarter of 2026.
Wilson added that the market has yet to fully appreciate these developments. He said:
The historically sharp inflection we're seeing in earnings revisions breadth confirms this process is underway, an underappreciated development, in our view. This rebound in revisions also suggests that returns for the average stock are likely to be quite strong over the next 12 months based on our back-test.
Noting that Morgan Stanley now leans more towards its 12-month bull case, Wilson sounded a note of caution, reminding investors that even a broadly rising market "is not without risks".
"Thus, we do expect some consolidation tactically but would reiterate that we expect pullbacks to be shallow, and we're buyers of dips," he said (quoted by the AFR).
Morgan Stanley's bull case sees the S&P 500 hitting 7,200 points by mid-2026. That's up another 12.7% from current levels.
How to invest on the ASX
If you're looking to mimic the performance of the S&P 500 without having to buy 500 US stocks, you may wish to check out the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ASX: SPY).
The ASX-listed exchange-traded fund (ETF) provides investors with exposure to 500 of the largest US-listed companies and aims to track the benchmark US index.
Over the past 12 months, the ETF has gained 17.1%.
And you've likely heard of its largest four holdings. Namely Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT), Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL), and Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN).
