Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares have been in fine form over the past 12 months.
During this time, the banking giant's shares have risen almost 40%. This is a better performance than many ASX growth shares.
But if you thought these sorts of gains could be repeated over the next 12 months, think again.
That's the view of analysts at Bell Potter, which are underweight Australia's largest bank.
Why is Bell Potter underweight CBA shares?
This month, Bell Potter has been busy updating its Australian Equity Core Portfolio.
It notes that this portfolio aims to highlight attractive investment opportunities within the local share market. It has a focus on paying the right price for high-quality companies that can deliver long-term growth.
In addition, the broker highlights that its Core Portfolio is benchmark-aware and aims to generate alpha (outperformance) above the S&P/ASX 200.
Unfortunately for CBA shareholders, it believes that investors will need to be underweight CBA shares and Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) and focus on other ASX shares if they want to generate alpha. It said:
Significant underweights in large caps like Wesfarmers (WES) reflect our view that current valuations in discretionary are stretched, and in Commonwealth Bank (CBA) is due to share prices not adequately reflecting the headwinds the banking sector is facing.
What else did it say?
In respect to CBA, the broker highlights that it is undoubtedly the highest quality bank that Australia has to offer.
However, it still can't justify its inflated valuation, which is at a significant premium to both its peers and historical multiples. And this comes at a time when the banking sector is facing headwinds and margin pressures. It explains:
While acknowledging CBA is the highest quality bank in Australia, the significant underweight position is driven by its excessive valuation, which sees it trading at a material premium to both its peers and its own long-term history.
This premium is considered unjustifiable in the current environment, as the entire banking sector faces headwinds from margin compression and increased competitions across banking segments. Given the muted growth outlook, the stock's valuation presents a poor risk-return trade-off, and a rotation out of the overpriced banking segment is anticipated.
In light of this, if you want to outperform the market over the next 12 months, the broker appears to believe that you may struggle to do so if you are still holding CBA shares.
