This beaten-down ASX 200 stock could be a turnaround story

Let's see if analysts think this stock is a buy after its heavy decline.

| More on:
A group of young friends celebrating and toasting with beers

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

While many investors are chasing high-flying tech and healthcare names, sometimes the biggest opportunities lie where sentiment is weakest.

One such name currently trading under the radar is Endeavour Group Ltd (ASX: EDV). It is the ASX 200 stock behind Dan Murphy's, BWS, and ALH Hotels.

The company has had a rough 12 months, with its share price sliding around 25% since this time last year.

Softer consumer spending and unfavourable trends have weighed heavily on investor sentiment. But could the market be too pessimistic?

Still a dominant player

Despite the share price decline, Endeavour remains the clear market leader in Australian liquor retail, with a nationwide store footprint and unmatched brand recognition.

It currently boasts an omnichannel network of more than 1,675 stores, 344 hotels, and scalable digital platforms in its websites and apps.

In addition, the ASX 200 stock highlights that its customer base is large, growing, and highly engaged. At the last count, it had over 4.5 million active My Dan's members.

Overall, this offers significant earnings leverage once consumer confidence improves. Which may not be far off given the outlook for further interest rate cuts from the RBA in 2025 and 2026.

Decent potential returns

A number of analysts haven't written the business off.

One of those is Morgans, which recently put an accumulate rating and $4.35 price target on its shares.

Based on its current share price of $4.03, this implies potential upside of 8% for investors over the next 12 months.

To put this into context, a $10,000 investment would turn into $10,800 if the broker is on the money with its recommendation.

But the returns don't stop there.

Decent dividend yields

For income-focused investors, Endeavour's dividends could make the waiting for a sustained turnaround easier.

The ASX 200 stock is forecast by Morgans to pay fully franked dividends of 19 cents per share in FY 2025 and then 21 cents per share in FY 2026. This equates to attractive dividend yields of around 4.7% and 5.2%, respectively.

Those are good payouts and supported by a business with strong brands, recurring customer demand, and significant long-term earnings potential.

In addition, with interest rates expected to fall over the course of the year, these yields look set to be comfortably higher than what you will find from savings accounts and term deposits.

And combined with its potential share price upside, a total return of approximately 13% could be on the cards for buyers at current levels.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Endeavour Group. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Blue Chip Shares

A financial expert or broker looks worried as he checks out a graph showing market volatility.
Blue Chip Shares

2 big ASX 200 shares this fund manager rates as buys

These large businesses could be strong contenders for returns.

Read more »

A fit woman in workout gear flexes her muscles with two bigger people flexing behind her, indicating growth.
Blue Chip Shares

3 ASX blue-chip shares I'd buy with $3,000 right now

These big stocks have a strong market position. Here’s why they’re buys…

Read more »

A young man punches the air in delight as he reacts to great news on his mobile phone.
Blue Chip Shares

3 high-quality ASX 200 shares now trading at multi-year discounts

These shares could be dirt cheap according to analysts.

Read more »

Man holding out Australian dollar notes, symbolising dividends.
Blue Chip Shares

Where to invest $10,000 in ASX shares in December

These shares could be great picks for Aussie investors this month.

Read more »

A group of people in suits watch as a man puts his hand up to take the opportunity.
Blue Chip Shares

These are the top ASX blue-chip shares I'd buy today

I believe these large stocks still have significant growth potential.

Read more »

A smiling woman sits in a cafe reading a story on her phone about Rio Tinto and drinking a coffee with a laptop open in front of her.
Blue Chip Shares

3 ASX stocks I'd trust with $10,000 for the next decade

Let's see why these blue chips could be great long term picks for investors.

Read more »

Two happy excited friends in euphoria mood after winning in a bet with a smartphone in hand.
Blue Chip Shares

These top ASX 200 stocks could rise 25% to 60%

These shares could be cheap at current levels according to analysts.

Read more »

Two brokers analysing stocks.
Blue Chip Shares

Why are QBE shares sinking 6% today?

Let's see how the insurance giant is performing in FY 2025.

Read more »