S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stock Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD) has already delivered some seriously outsized gains to shareholders over the past year.
On Friday, Genesis Minerals shares closed the day trading for $3.93 apiece.
That sees the share price up 83% since this time last year.
But rather than recommending investors cash in some of those gains, the analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) expect the ASX 200 gold stock to deliver another year of market-beating returns.
We'll get to that bullish outlook in a tick.
But first…
What's been sending the ASX 200 gold stock surging?
Like its rival ASX 200 gold stocks, Genesis Minerals has certainly been benefiting from a soaring gold price.
As of Friday afternoon, the yellow metal was trading for US$3,336 (AU$5,124) per ounce. That's up more than 36% in a year.
Atop the rising gold price tailwinds, the miner has also stoked ASX investor interest amid all-time high gold production.
At its June quarter update, released on Thursday, Genesis Minerals reported record quarterly gold production of 61,469 ounces.
The all-in sustaining cost (AISC) came in at AU$2,499 per ounce.
The ASX 200 gold stock also achieved record FY 2025 gold production of 214,311 ounces at an AISC of AU$2,398 per ounce.
That came in at the higher end of full year AISC cost guidance of AU$2,200 to AU$2,400 per ounce. And it beat FY 2025 production guidance of 190,000 to 210,000 ounces of gold.
Gold sales came in at 62,226 ounces at an average price of AU$5,046 per ounce. That generated revenue of AU$314 million over the three months.
And likely offering some support in the months ahead, the miner's closing ore stockpiles (awaiting processing) increased to 65,887 ounces at 1.6g/t.
"We have capped an outstanding year for Genesis with a very strong quarter on the operational front while also continuing to lay the foundations for rapid growth," Genesis Minerals managing director Raleigh Finlayson said of the results.
He added:
We also continued to make strong progress on the Tower Hill development, with several scenarios now on the table thanks in part to the Focus acquisition. Given the increased options we have, we intend to fully assess and optimise these scenarios while at the same time remaining committed to the overall project timetable.
The ASX 200 gold stock announced its acquisition of the Laverton Gold Project, located in Western Australia, from Focus Minerals Ltd (ASX: FML) on 26 May for a cash consideration of $250 million.
What is Macquarie's forecast for Genesis Minerals shares?
Following on Thursday's quarterly update, Macquarie maintained its outperform rating for Genesis Minerals shares. Among other pending tailwinds, Macquarie foresees material cost savings on the horizon alongside a big ramp-up in the gold miner's mill capacity.
The broker noted:
GMD is exploring staged mill expansions across its two process plants, noting that it now intends to feed Tower Hill to the Leonora plant (1km away), rather than trucking all the way to Laverton (100km away).
GMD expects (undiscounted) savings of A$225m (real) in trucking costs over Tower Hill's current reserve life. We already assume GMD expands mill capacity from 4.4Mtpa to ~7Mtpa.
Macquarie has a $5.50 12-month price target for the ASX 200 gold stock.
That represents a potential upside of 40.0% from Friday's Genesis Minerals closing price of $3.93 a share.
