Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) shares have been very strong performers over the past 12 months.
In fact, the ASX 200 gold stock has rocketed approximately 90% since this time last year. This has almost doubled its market capitalisation to $15 billion.
Does this mean it is too late to invest? Let's see what analysts at Bell Potter are saying about the gold miner following its quarterly update.
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What is Bell Potter saying about this ASX 200 gold stock?
Bell Potter was pleased with the company's performance during the fourth quarter. It highlights that its production and costs were largely in line with expectations. It said:
EVN has reported a solid June quarter 2025 result. Group production was 182.4koz gold and 19.2kt copper (vs BPe 183.1koz gold and 19.1kt copper). All-In-SustainingCosts (AISC) for continuing operations were A$1,562/oz (excluding Mt Rawdon), A$1,655/oz (including Mt Rawdon) and compared with BPe A$1,589/oz. The production result was in-line with our forecasts and with guidance for a weaker quarter as the planned major mill shutdown at the Cowal Gold Mine continued early into the June quarter.
Another highlight from the update was the miner's cash generation, which was at record levels thanks to the booming gold price. Bell Potter commented:
As anticipated, cash generation lifted to record levels as the average A$ gold spot price lifted ~A$580/oz (~13%) qoq. EVN's group free cash flow increased to a record $308m (up 49% qoq from $207m). This not only demonstrates EVN's leverage to the gold price but also resulted (on our calculations) in record net cash addition to the balance sheet of A$1,680 per ounce produced (up 52% qoq from A$1,100/oz qoq).
The good news is that this is expected to lead to bigger dividends this year and next. It adds:
We expect this to be reflected in returns to shareholders. We forecast a fully franked final FY25 dividend of A12cps could be declared (up from A3cps in the pcp) for total FY25 distributions of A19cps. FY26 guidance was provided, for production of 710-780koz gold and 70-80kt copper at AISC of A$1,720-A$1,880/oz.
Time to buy?
Despite the impressive performance, Bell Potter is sitting on the fence with this ASX 200 gold stock due to valuation reasons.
This morning, the broker has retained its hold rating with a $7.95 price target. Based on its current share price of $7.52, this implies only modest potential upside of 5.7% over the next 12 months.
Commenting on its hold rating, the broker said:
EVN offers effectively unhedged gold and copper exposure via a portfolio of high quality, long-life assets in Tier 1 jurisdictions. EVN has stated intention to pass growing free cash flows on to shareholders. Our NPV-based Target Price drops to $7.95/sh and we retain our Hold recommendation.
