Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) has had a difficult time over the past 12 months, with shrinking profit and ballooning debt taking a toll on its share price.
As of Thursday morning, the mining operator's share price is trading a little higher, up 1.22% and changing hands at $24.91 a piece. While any share price increase is positive for investors, there is still a long way to go before it recoups the 55.11% loss seen over the past year.
For the first half of 2025, the company reported a net debt of $5.08 billion, up from $4.4 billion in the same period last year. This dampened investor confidence and sent its share price south.
Three board member resignations in April also raised questions about the business. Susie Corlett, Jacqueline McGill, and Denise McComish all left the company and the ethics committee within a few weeks.
The departures followed founder and CEO Chris Ellison's admission in October last year that he was involved in a tax evasion ploy. He admitted to failing to properly disclose revenue from his overseas entities to the Australian Taxation Office.
So what's ahead for the miner over the next 12 months?
Here's Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG)'s latest stance on the stock.
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Outlook for Mineral Resources shares
In a recent note to investors, the broker maintains its neutral rating on Mineral Resources and its $22.00 share price. This represents a potential 11.68% downside from the trading price at the time of writing.
Our 4QFY25 production estimates for MIN are broadly in line with a small beat on iron ore (+4%) and in line spodumene (0%) at 8.4mt (Utah equity share at 2.6mt, Onslow on a 100% basis) and 128kt, respectively.
The broker added that it has adjusted its depreciation and amortisation (D&A) assumptions as the company's Onslow iron ore project ramps up.
We have revised our D&A assumptions given the continued ramp up of Onslow which resulted in 57% and 15% EPS cuts on near term thin earnings.
We expect total shipments of 5.8mt from Onslow (100% basis), up 59% QoQ, according to our bespoke shipping data in June. On our forecasts, shipments at the Pilbara Hub will also increase by 14% to 2.6mt.
The broker also notes that movements in spot iron ore and spodumene prices represent a material risk to its earnings forecast for Mineral Resources.
We make assumptions on the capital and operating costs for projects not currently in production including Wodgina and Onslow. Variances in these costs vs our forecasts can have a material impact on our earnings forecasts and valuation.
