At 2:30pm AEST, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) was just about flat for the day.
That's right when the latest interest rate announcement was released by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
In the minutes that followed, the ASX 200 fell 0.3% as investors digested the unexpected decision.
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ASX 200 slumps on RBA's surprising interest rate decision
In February this year, when the official interest rate still stood at 4.35%, the central bank opted to deliver its first rate cut since November 2020.
The board held rates steady at its next meeting, then gave the ASX 200 a modest boost when it cut rates by another 0.25% the last time it met on 20 May. This brought the official Aussie cash rate to 3.85%.
Which is right where the interest rate will remain, at least until the central bank's next policy decision is made on 12 August.
Today, ASX 200 investors are favouring their sell buttons after the RBA reported that, contrary to consensus analyst forecasts, it had decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 3.85%.
Six members voted in favour of the decision, while three opposed it.
The board noted that inflation has "fallen substantially since the peak in 2022", with higher interest rates bringing supply and demand dynamics closer towards balance.
According to the RBA:
In the March quarter, headline inflation, which has partly been affected by temporary cost of living relief, was at the midpoint of the target range while trimmed mean inflation was at 2.9%…
While recent monthly CPI Indicator data suggest that June quarter inflation is likely to be broadly in line with the forecast [of ongoing moderation], they were, at the margin, slightly stronger than expected.
With the cash rate 50 basis points lower than five months ago and wider economic conditions evolving broadly as expected, the board judged that it could wait for a little more information to confirm that inflation remains on track to reach 2.5% on a sustainable basis.
And ASX 200 investors largely have global uncertainty to blame for today's higher interest rates for longer news. And a tight domestic labour market.
"Uncertainty in the world economy remains elevated," the RBA noted.
On the domestic front, the board said "various indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight" in Australia. It added, "Wages growth has softened from its peak, but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high."
Citing "uncertainties regarding the lags in the effect of recent monetary policy easing", the board said it "judged that it could wait for a little more information to confirm that inflation remains on track to reach 2.5% on a sustainable basis".
What now for Aussie interest rates?
Looking to what ASX 200 investors and mortgage holders might expect from the RBA's upcoming interest rate decisions, Josh Gilbert, market analyst at eToro, said, "Three further 25bp cuts are still priced in by analysts…"
But Gilbert cautioned this could cause some unwanted side effects.
"The next concern, however, will be the impact on the housing market," he said.
Gilbert added:
Aussie home prices are climbing to record highs, and supply is dwindling, creating an environment of unaffordability even as repayments become reasonable. Without real action on a federal level, we may see the RBA and our government operating at loggerheads, which could start to hurt the economy once more.
Despite today's pullback, and the relatively high interest rate environment, the ASX 200 remains up 10.5% since this time last year.
