Despite a small dip in intraday trading today, Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) shares have delivered some seriously outsized gains over the past 12 months.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) airline stock closed yesterday trading for $10.74. In afternoon trade on Tuesday, shares are changing hands for $10.72 apiece, down 0.2%.
But just one year ago, on 1 July 2024, you could have picked up those some shares for just $5.91. That would now have booked you a gain of 81.4% on your investment.
Atop those capital gains, Qantas also paid a 26.4 cent per share fully franked dividend on 16 April. That marked the airline's first dividend payment since those were suspended in 2020 when the COVID pandemic shut down domestic and international travel.
Adding in that dividend brings the accumulated gains delivered by Qantas shares over the past full year to an impressive 85.9%. Or enough to turn a $5,000 investment into $9,293.
But with those gains already in the bag, is it too late to buy shares in the Flying Kangaroo today?
Can Qantas shares keep flying higher?
Peak Asset Management's Niv Dagan believes the ASX 200 airline could be in for some headwinds in the months ahead (courtesy of The Bull).
"The airline has enjoyed a strong 12 months, with its share price rising from $5.85 on June 28, 2024, to trade at $10.47 on June 26, 2025," said Dagan, who has a sell recommendation on Qantas shares.
Among the potential headwinds that could drag on the stock is June's successful initial public offering (IPO) of Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (ASX: VGN), along with Virgin's growing partnership with Qatar Airways.
"We expect intensifying competition from Virgin Australia's resurgence backed by Qatar Airways, which could compress margins," Dagan said.
And there also looks to be a pullback in the post pandemic pent-up domestic travel demand.
"Demand for air travel in Australia was 4% lower in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 when compared to the prior corresponding period," Dagan noted.
He concluded, "We believe Qantas is over-valued, so investors may want to consider taking gains in the company ahead of any possible price war that potentially reduces airline ticket prices."
What's been sending the ASX 200 airline soaring?
ASX investors have been sending Qantas shares flying higher amid some exceptionally strong performance from the company.
At its half year results, released on 27 February, Qantas reported a 9% year on year increase in total revenue to $12.13 billion.
And with profit before tax up by 11% to $1.39 billion, management pleased investors by announcing the first dividend payout in five years.
