BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares feature in countless investment portfolios and superannuation funds across the country.
As a result, the performance of the mining giant's shares has a big impact on the wealth of Australians.
But was this impact positive or negative during the 2025 financial year? Let's have a look at what $10,000 invested in BHP shares during the last financial year would be worth now.
$10,000 invested in BHP shares
At the end of the previous financial year, investors could have picked up the Big Australian's shares for $42.68 each.
This means that with a $10,000 investment (plus an extra $29.80), investors would have ended up owning 235 shares.
What happened in FY 2025?
Unfortunately, other than copper, commodity prices weren't overly favourable for the miner over the past 12 months.
This led to BHP releasing its half year results in February and reporting an 8% decline in revenue to US$25.2 billion, an 11% decline in underlying EBITDA to US$12.4 billion, and a 23% decline in underlying attributable profit to US$5.1 billion.
In light of this profit decline, the BHP board was forced to slash its fully franked interim dividend by 30.5% to 50 US cents per share.
What is this investment worth today?
Unsurprisingly, given its poor financial performance over the last financial year, BHP shares have underperformed the market.
The BHP share price ended yesterday's session at $36.75. This means that those 235 shares now have a market value of just $8,636.25. That's almost $1,400 less than an investor would have started with.
But let's not forget that BHP is a big dividend payer. During this time, the miner has paid out a total of approximately $1.90 per share in dividends to its shareholders.
This means that those 235 BHP shares would have generated a decent $446.50 in dividend income.
This values the holding at $9,082.75, which is a little under $1,000 less than the starting balance. While better, it is still not a great outcome for investors.
Especially when the ASX 200 index rose approximately 10% over the financial year.
Should you buy the dip?
The team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) thinks that investors should be buying the dip.
A note earlier this week reveals that its analysts have put an outperform rating and $40.00 price target on BHP's shares. This implies potential upside of 9% for investors over the next 12 months.
The broker said:
In terms of the majors, we maintain our ratings with S32 (Outperform) and BHP (Outperform), with BHP preferred over RIO (Neutral) and FMG (Neutral). The divergence of long-term consensus iron ore prices to our forecasts have expanded the long-term fundamental valuation gap, as we forecast a market reaction associated with Simandou commissioning and Onslow ramp-up, against the backdrop of plateauing steel production in China.
