Can the Xero share price deliver a 17% return after the US acquisition?

Can investors generate strong returns after Xero's US acquisition?

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO) share price has dropped 6% since 24 June 2025. The ASX tech share has revealed a major acquisition – the US-based Melio, a small and medium business bill pay platform that integrates accounting and payments.

The upfront price is US$2.5 billion for a business that, as of March 2025, had annualised revenue of US$187 million. Management are hopeful this business can help Xero unlock a stronger position and growth rate in the US.

It's a big purchase price and the business is aiming to raise around A$2 billion from a capital raising with institutions and retail investors.

The question now is – is the Xero share price attractive following this deal? Let's take a look at what leading broker UBS thinks.

Broker looking at the share price.

Image source: Getty Images

Bullish view on Xero shares

UBS pointed out that Melio achieved revenue growth of 40% in the prior 12 months, with a free cash flow loss of around US$88 million.

The acquisition price values Melio at a revenue multiple of 9.7x when including around $70 million of revenue synergies which Xero expects to be realised by FY28. The purchase price may cost another US$0.4 billion depending on various elements.

UBS said the acquisition strongly aligns with Xero's strategy by increasing its North American presence via payments and a "syndicated accounting offering."

Melio has 480,000 customers with average revenue per user (ARPU) of US$49 per month, with the US company's customer profile similar to Xero's, which could bode well for Xero shares.

Xero thinks the payments space is a US$29 billion total addressable market (TAM) opportunity, out of which accounts payable makes up US$14 billion, with 90% of the small and medium business accounts payable TAM not yet using software.

Xero thinks there are significant opportunities to serve customers of businesses like Fizerv, which powers around 3,500 financial institutions in the US, serving 18 million small and medium enterprises. These self-employed and micro businesses often require a payments method before even adopting an accounting solution, driving cross-selling opportunities for Xero.

UBS noted Xero wants to more than double its FY25 revenue.

Price target

UBS currently has a price target of A$215 on the software business. A price target is where the broker thinks the business will be in 12 months from now.

In other words, the broker is suggesting the Xero share price could rise by 17.5% over the next year.

That suggests the ASX tech share could deliver pleasing returns from here.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Technology Shares

A woman holds her hand out under a graphic hologram image of a human brain with brightly lit segments and section points.
Technology Shares

These 3 ASX technology stocks can prosper in uncertain times

For these companies, AI will be a help, not a hindrance.

Read more »

Man looking at digital holograms of graphs, charts, and data.
Technology Shares

Interested in investing in AI? Check out this new $350 million trust

This new trust is promising a differentiated AI investment offer.

Read more »

A woman on a green background points a finger at graphic images of molecules, a rocket, light bulbs, and scientific symbols as she smiles.
Technology Shares

2 ASX tech shares I'd buy that aren't Xero or WiseTech

I think these growing tech shares have bright, long-term outlooks.

Read more »

A smiling woman holds a Facebook like sign above her head.
Technology Shares

Bell Potter is recommending this ASX tech stock as a buy

The broker has good things to say about this growing company.

Read more »

Arrows pointing upwards with a man pointing his finger at one.
Technology Shares

If you invested $10,000 in Megaport shares in April, here's how much you'd have now

Megaport’s latest rally has turned April buyers into big winners.

Read more »

A woman jumps for joy with a rocket drawn on the wall behind her.
Technology Shares

Why is this ASX battery materials technology stock rocketing 24% today?

This stock is avoiding the market weakness today and rocketing higher.

Read more »

A briefcase full of money
Technology Shares

Megaport launches retail entitlement offer after $827 million capital raise

Megaport launches retail entitlement offer after raising $827 million to support new AI contracts and global infrastructure investment.

Read more »

Person pointing at an increasing blue graph which represents a rising share price.
Technology Shares

Why WiseTech Global shares could rise 90% in a year

Bell Potter is tipping a big rebound from this tech stock.

Read more »