On Monday, Kogan.com Ltd (ASX: KGN) shares hit a 52-week low.
The consumer discretionary company is down 10.95% in that span.
The company operates as an online retailer in Australia, offering various brands across a range of categories, including electronics, appliances, homewares, hardware, toys etc.
Since reaching $6.30 a share in December last year, the share price has fallen more than 40%.
Why the fall?
It seems investors were scared off by disappointing earnings results.
In April, the company released a third-quarter trading update that included a reported 6.2% decline in gross sales to $178.3 million.
In May, Kogan provided a trading update for the first four months of 2025 that included a 0.7% decline in revenue, a 37.5% decline in adjusted EBITDA to $6.8 million, and a 63.7% decline in adjusted EBIT to $2.5 million. Following today's decline, Kogan's shares are now down 32% since the start of the year.
The question now is whether the stock price has fallen below its intrinsic value.
Is there upside?
Messaging from the company has pointed towards a website platform upgrade that was announced in February, which affected its sales performance and inventory levels.
Ruslan Kogan, the CEO of Kogan also added one million shares to his personal portfolio in February, signalling long term confidence in the company.
Discretionary shares are also largely dependent on economic conditions.
Discretionary shares are companies that sell non-essential goods—things people buy when they have extra money, like electronics, appliances, furniture or clothes/fashion items.
Kogan is a major online retailer selling value-focused tech and lifestyle products.
Lower interest rates can reduce mortgage and credit costs, leaving consumers with more disposable income to spend on non-essential items like electronics—boosting sales for retailers like Kogan.
What are brokers saying?
Based on price targets from brokers, it seems Kogan shares have now dipped into the undervalued range.
Currently Broker Bell Potter has a target price of $5.00 which would suggest the share price can climb more than 33%.
However in a report issued in May the broker did identify competitive intensity in the e-commerce industry as a key risk.
Trading View has a one year price target of $5.48, while online brokerage platform Selfwealth has an average price target of $5.24.
