S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) copper stocks could enjoy some solid tailwinds over the coming months.
That's according to the latest research into the red metal from Goldman Sachs, with the broker boosting its copper price forecast for the second half of 2025.
Miners that stand to benefit include copper-focused Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR), along with dual-listed, Canadian-based Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC). Capstone first began trading on the ASX in April 2024.
And while Aussie mining giant BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) may not be the first company you think of when you're investigating ASX 200 copper stocks, BHP's copper exposure is growing rapidly. In fact, in FY 2024, copper sales made up 29% of the miner's earnings.
Now, iron ore is still BHP's top revenue earner, though that's been weighing on the BHP share price of late. Back in October, iron ore was fetching US$112 per tonne. Today, that same tonne is trading for around US$93.
However, a rising copper price could help push BHP shares higher, as well as lift shares in ASX 200 copper stocks Sandfire Resources and Capstone Copper.
In FY 2024, BHP's copper production increased by 9% to 1.87 million tonnes. And the miner's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) from copper sales were up 29% year on year to US$8.6 billion.
And BHP's copper exposure is continuing to grow in 2025.
In H1 FY 2025, BHP's underlying copper EBITDA was up 44% year on year to US$5 billion. That saw copper earnings increase to 39% of BHP's underlying EBITDA. And for the three months to 31 March, BHP's copper production was up another 10% year on year.
Why Goldman's forecast is bullish for ASX 200 copper stocks
With copper imports into the United States surging, Goldman Sachs is forecasting a potential supply crunch in other parts of the world, which could help boost ASX 200 copper stocks.
Particularly over the next two months.
According to the broker (courtesy of The Australian Financial Review):
Significant over-imports of copper into the US have caused fears of a shortage in the rest of the world, despite the global market being in surplus, and have resulted in a blow-out in [London Metal Exchange] time spreads.
Goldman upgraded its second-half 2025 LME copper price forecast to US$9,890 a tonne. That's up from its previous forecast of US$9,140 a tonne.
"We expect the LME price to continue rising over the next two months, peaking for the year at US$10,050 in August, before falling to US$9700 by December", Goldman said.
The red metal is currently trading for US$9,712 on the LME.
So, the biggest potential boost for ASX 200 copper stocks looks to be during the next two months as we head into August. However, Goldman is forecasting that copper prices will hit US$10,350 by December 2026, so there could be more tailwinds in the year ahead.
