The Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) share price has performed admirably in 2025 to date, rising by 21%, outperforming the 4% rise for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).
Investors may be wondering whether the ASX telco share can deliver ongoing pleasing results for shareholders.
The market usually values a business based on how much net profit it's making and what it expects to make.
Let's take a look at what profit Telstra is expected to make in the coming years. I'll refer to the projections from broker UBS for the telco over the next few years.
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FY25
The 2025 financial year is nearly over, but what the company achieves in this financial year is very important.
UBS' most recent analysis of Telstra shares came after the ASX telco share held its Connected Future 30 strategy day which highlighted growing demand, Telstra's competitive advantages and an execution track record.
The broker noted Telstra is investing in AI and setting new key performance indicators (KPIs), benchmarking against the top 25% of international companies.
However, the broker said the "jury is still out" on whether the industry can lift the return on invested capital (ROIC). Telstra is forecasting ROIC could increase from 8% to 10% by FY30, and UBS is projecting it could reach between 12% to 13%.
While depreciation, amortisation and spectrum costs in FY27 and FY28 will impact ROIC over the next five years, according to UBS, while AI could help reduce costs and improve productivity.
UBS also noted that Telstra has "undergone significant restructure of its enterprise products division over the last 12 months by removing 50% of its product portfolio" with a target to remove two-thirds in total.
However, the broker is cautious because the enterprise and government sector continues to be structurally challenged with budget cuts and increasing competition.
For the 2025 financial year, UBS is projecting that Telstra could generate $23.9 billion of revenue and $2.28 billion of net profit.
FY26
In the mobile division, Telstra recently announced a postpaid monthly price rise of between $3 to $5 per month from July 2025. That was the highest price rise since 2022.
This suggests a $2 per month postpaid average revenue per user (ARPU) rise for FY26 because it only applies to consumers and small to medium enterprises. Telstra also has to fund large Starlink direct-to-handset licensing costs.
On the intercity fibre initiative, Telstra announced the first of its fibre routes to be opened during this month (June 2025), followed by a second route which is expected to be ready in the first quarter of FY26. UBS' forecasts assume an additional $200 million of operating profit (EBITDA) for InfraCo by FY30. Management is confident on delivering "mid-teens IRR" [internal rate of return].
In FY26, UBS is predicting that Telstra's net profit could rise by 10% to $2.51 billion, with $24.4 billion of revenue. That sounds good for Telstra shares, in my view.
FY27
In the 2027 financial year, UBS is projecting that Telstra could make further financial progress. Revenue is predicted to increase to $25.0 billion.
This year could see Telstra's net profit increase by 5.6% to $2.65 billion.
FY28
The 2028 financial year could get even better for the business.
Telstra is predicted by UBS to deliver $25.5 billion of revenue, which could help net profit rise a further 12.7% to $2.99 billion.
FY29
The business could have its best year of this series of projections. The 2029 financial year could see the ASX telco share deliver $26.3 billion of revenue.
Telstra's net profit could increase could rise by another 10% year over year to $3.29 billion. If the company achieves the profit numbers UBS is projecting, Telstra's net profit could increase by 44% between FY25 and FY29, which would be an excellent tailwind for the Telstra share price, in my opinion.
