This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.
As of June 12, shares of electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) have dropped by 21% on the year. On the surface, this doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
However, over the last couple of weeks, Tesla stock has started to witness some new life -- save for a brief sell-off following a fleeting tiff between Elon Musk and President Trump.
While Tesla's core EV business continues to struggle, I think shares are poised for an epic comeback during the second half of the year.
Let's explore a major update coming to Tesla soon and understand how this could fuel shares to new all-time highs. Is now the time to pounce on Tesla stock? Read on to find out.
Tesla's upcoming chapter could define the future of the company
Tesla investors understand that Elon Musk's vision for the company is not just to sell the most EVs. Rather, Musk has been focusing on various elements of artificial intelligence (AI) and how the technology can be used to transform Tesla.
Right now, the most immediate AI use case for Tesla is commercializing autonomous driving software. Tesla plans to leverage self-driving software across two applications: offering it as a feature in its cars and building a fleet of robotaxis for ride-hailing services.
While the initial launch date for the Tesla Robotaxi was rumored to be June 12, more recent commentary from Musk himself suggests that the first rides will take place in Austin, Texas, later this month (potentially between June 22 and 28).
A successful robotaxi launch represents a transformative shift in Tesla -- from primarily a car manufacturer to more of an AI-powered services provider disrupting ride-hailing, car rentals, or logistics businesses.
Why Tesla stock could skyrocket during the second half of 2025
When it comes to popular stocks in the AI realm, I'm sure cloud hyperscalers Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon come to mind. Moreover, given Nvidia's ongoing rollout of its new Blackwell GPU architecture, the semiconductor king appears well positioned for further growth, too.
Among Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon, these three cloud computing giants are forecast to spend nearly $260 billion in AI capital expenditures (capex) just this year.
On the one hand, these companies would not be investing so aggressively if demand was not robust for their respective AI services. But on the other side of the equation, it takes time to build out AI data centers and complete sophisticated AI infrastructure projects. In my view, investors might want to see some tangible return on investment in the form of accelerating revenue and widening profit margins from this rising capex before doubling down on their positions.
In addition, the biggest question mark surrounding Nvidia is the company's exposure to China and how ongoing tariff negotiations could impact the company's market presence across Asia.
Although Tesla is not completely immune to tariffs and its core EV business is decelerating, recent price action suggests that investors view these road bumps as near-term headwinds. The primary catalyst fueling Tesla stock right now seems to be the robotaxi launch.
How big of an opportunity is the robotaxi for Tesla?
Wide-scale adoption of autonomous driving technology could be a game changer for Tesla. At its core, the company's self-driving technology is a software product -- meaning it carries higher profit margins than the traditional automobile business. Moreover, both the robotaxi service and the autonomous driving feature have the potential to be sources of more recurring revenue for Tesla -- as opposed to a one-time purchase of a vehicle.
In turn, longtime Tesla investor Ron Baron forecasts that autonomous driving services could add billions in annual cash flow to Tesla. Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood and equity research analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities are in the same boat as Baron, going as far as to project that the robotaxi could be Tesla's path to achieving trillions in additional value for shareholders.
Should you buy Tesla stock right now?
Although Tesla stock has steadily been climbing over the last month-and-a-half, I would caution investors from buying into the idea that now is an opportunity to take advantage of a dip.
Right now, I think Tesla stock is largely trading on a bullish narrative surrounding the launch of the robotaxi. I'd go as far as to say that as the launch gets underway and Tesla begins to scale the robotaxi operation, shares could begin to rise sharply.
However, smart investors remember that Musk himself has made it explicitly clear that the robotaxi will not be a meaningful financial contributor for Tesla for at least a year.
Even if Tesla stock soars during the second half of 2025, I think it will be largely driven by momentum and excitement. In my view, that style of price movement is aligned with swing trading as opposed to long-term investing.
So, while I do think Tesla stock will outperform its "Magnificent Seven" peers over the next six months, I actually think investing in the stock is a bit risky at the moment.
A more prudent approach to an investment in Tesla is to see how the Robotaxi business scalers in the coming months while learning how impactful this new segment is for the entire business. From there, investors should get a better sense of what the robotaxi could actually be worth to help assess if Tesla's valuation is reasonable.
This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.
