Owners of BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares will want to know what's expected of their ASX mining share in the coming years.
There are a lot of moving parts to the BHP business, with its iron ore, copper, coal and potash. Each segment may not perform as strongly as the others at different points in the economic cycle, but collectively, the business is capable of producing strong profits when resource prices are relatively supportive.
It can be tricky for experts to forecast BHP's profit accurately because of how unpredictable resource prices can be. However, they can analyse the situation by looking at potential supply and demand changes, as well as the company's plans for its production.
Let's take a look at what UBS thinks of BHP's performance and prospects in FY25, as well as forecasts for each financial year to FY29.
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FY25 estimates for BHP shares
The most recent quarterly update from the business was for the three months to 31 March 2025.
UBS noted that BHP's iron ore production was flat year over year, despite weather challenges. It also achieved record production over the prior nine months, with the port debottlenecking project improving car dumper and ship loader performance – its rail is now being improved with the roll-out of its multi-year rail technology program.
Its copper production grew 10% year-over-year, beating expectations. The Escondida and Spence projects benefited from higher grades.
Its coal operations saw a strong performance, according to UBS.
UBS notes there is uncertainty relating to US tariffs, which could impact demand and resource prices in FY25 and FY26. Negative outcomes could mean "risk to spot & copper iron ore prices".
The broker also suggests BHP could maintain a 50% dividend payout policy with its FY25 result in August.
UBS is projecting that in FY25, the ASX mining share could generate US$49.6 billion of revenue and US$9.8 billion of net profit. This could allow the business to pay an annual dividend per BHP share of US 97 cents.
FY26
The 2026 financial year could suffer from a reduction of revenue and net profit.
UBS is projecting that the ASX mining share's revenue could fall to US$45.7 billion, while net profit could decline more than US$2 billion to US$7.6 billion.
FY27
Pleasingly, in the 2027 financial year, the broker is forecasting that revenue and net profit could rebound.
UBS is projecting that BHP's revenue could climb to US$49.5 billion and the net profit could increase to US$10 billion, which would be the best year of this series of projections so far.
FY28
In the 2028 financial year, things could get even better for the ASX mining share.
UBS is forecasting that BHP's revenue could climb by more than US$1 billion to US$50.9 billion and it could achieve net profit of US$10.7 billion.
FY29
The final year of this series of projections is the 2029 financial year. This could see the business generate US$56.5 billion of revenue and report US$12.9 billion of net profit. The profit generated could allow the business to pay an annual dividend per share US$1.27 in FY29.
If those projections come true, between FY25 and FY29, the revenue could climb by 13.8%, net profit could increase by 31.4% and the dividend could be hiked by 30.9%.
Overall, the direction of profit seems promising for owners of BHP shares.
