The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price is marching higher today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant closed yesterday trading for $38.48. In late morning trade on Wednesday, shares are changing hands for $39.18 apiece, up 1.8%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.3% at this same time.
This sees the BHP share price up 14.8% from the recent 9 April lows. And shares are now down less than 2% in 2025.
With BHP having paid $1.90 a share in fully franked dividends over the past 12 months, the ASX 200 mining stock also trades on a 4.9% fully franked trailing dividend yield.
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What's catching ASX investor interest today?
Today's outperformance for the BHP share price looks to be spurred by renewed optimism over a potential détente in the stewing trade war between the United States and China.
The world's top two economies are currently engaged in high-level talks in London, with signs emerging that at least some of the most damaging tariffs may be off the table.
That's important because China counts as the biggest importer of Aussie iron ore and copper, which in turn count as BHP's number one and number two revenue earners.
Can the BHP share price keep pushing higher?
Fairmont Equities' Michael Gable recently cited two factors that could help boost the BHP share price into 2026 (courtesy of The Bull).
"This global diversified miner delivered record iron ore and copper production for the nine months ending March 31, 2025," said Gable, who currently has a hold recommendation on the ASX 200 miner.
"Total copper production increased 10% to 1.5 million tonnes. Iron ore production of 193 million tonnes was up 1%," he noted.
BHP's average realised price for that iron ore over the quarter dropped 21% to US$82.93 per wet metric tonne (wmt). Copper prices went the other way, with BHP's average realised price for the red metal up 13% to US$4.19 per pound.
According to Gable:
From a charting perspective, I believe BHP shares are set to recover. The shares fell from $41.26 on February 22 to close at $34.16 on April 9. The shares were trading at $38.21 on June 5.
As for the two tailwinds that could boost the BHP share price, and potentially the miner's future dividends, Gable said, "We believe a recovering share price will be supported by improving copper prices and a falling US dollar."
What's happening with the US dollar and copper?
A falling greenback can help support the BHP share price, as most global commodities – including copper and iron ore – are priced in US dollars. Meanwhile, much of BHP's own costs are in Aussie dollars and a smaller mix of other currencies.
So far in 2025, the US dollar is down 5.2% against the Aussie dollar, 10.5% against the euro, 8.9% against the Japanese yen, and 7.8% against the British pound.
The US dollar has come under pressure amid concerns of ballooning Federal government debt and rising political uncertainty. The US Fed is also expected to cut interest rates more aggressively than most other major central banks over the coming months.
As for copper and its impact on the BHP share price, the red metal remains critical to the global energy transition. Medium-term demand growth is expected to outpace supply growth, which could see copper prices retake or surpass the US$10,112 per tonne reached in late March.
