Well, it's looking like another positive day for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) this Thursday (touch wood). At the time of writing, the ASX 200 has gained a tentative 0.05% at just over 8,545 points.
This follows gains over Tuesday and yesterday, which have helped the market edge closer to its current all-time record high. It's been an exceptionally positive month for ASX shares. Since this time last month, the ASX 200 has now gained a healthy 4.75%, lifting the index from just over 8,150 points to the ~8,550 levels we are currently seeing.
It would only take less than a percentage point of further gains for the ASX 200 to exceed its previous all-time high of 8,615.7 points, which was set back in February.
It's an exciting time to be an investor in ASX 200 shares, to be sure. After all, I'd wager that there are few investors who hate watching their portfolios rise in value.
I am certainly not one of those few. However, that doesn't mean I'm not a little nervous. And I'm not at all tempted to add to my portfolio by buying more ASX 200 shares right now.
So why be nervous? Well, something is sticking in the proverbial craw right now. The last time the ASX 200 index was at its current level was in late February, just as the market was coming off that all-time high we discussed above.
That was before US President Donald Trump announced his sizeable 'Liberation Day' tariffs, and subsequently delayed them. It was before faith in the US dollar and US bond markets began fraying as a result. And it was before that same president revealed his 'Big Beautiful Bill' budget, which threatens to explode America's budget deficit.
ASX 200 approaches record high despite obvious clouds
Not to be a Nostradamus, but from where I'm standing, there's arguably a lot of uncertainty swirling around the global financial system right now. Yet the markets are in party mode. Sure, interest rates are falling. But so is economic growth. Trump's tariffs, which he expanded this week by doubling the import taxes on steel and aluminium to 50%, are almost certainly going to cause some damage to international trade.
Although the Liberation Day tariffs have been paused and subsequently disallowed by a US court (appeal pending), the Trump Administration is determined to see them through.
Sure, there are reasons to be optimistic. But the market is not optimistic right now. It is euphoric. That's the only rational explanation for why ASX 200 superstar Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)'s shares hit $180 yesterday, at least in my view.
So I'm not disappointed to see my portfolio rise in value. But I'm also preparing for the distinct possibility that this latest hike might prove to be temporary.
If that does turn out to be the case, then I would be happy to buy more shares. But I'm not buying them right now. Let's see what the next few months bring for ASX 200 investors.
