IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) shares have taken a beating over the past year amid slumping lithium prices.
A more than 15% fall in the nickel price over the past 12 months hasn't helped matters at IGO's Nova nickel mine either.
In afternoon trade today, however, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) lithium miner is enjoying a welcome day of gains. At the time of writing on Thursday, shares are changing hands for $4.18 apiece, up 5.6%.
Still, that leaves IGO shares down 38.7% since this time last year.
On 9 April, following the broader Trump tariff-fuelled stock market sell-off, shares closed at a more than five-year low of $3.12.
That means brave investors who waded in at those lows and bought shares are now sitting on gains of 34.0%.
Which, according to Bell Potter Securities' Christopher Watt, would make today a good day to sell (courtesy of The Bull).
Image source: Getty Images
Time to sell IGO shares?
"IGO owns and operates the Nova nickel operation, an underground mining and processing facility in Western Australia," said Watt, who has a sell recommendation on IGO shares. "Final production at Nova is expected in the December quarter of 2026."
Watt noted, "IGO also has lithium interests. The company has a joint interest in the Greenbushes lithium mine, but spodumene prices have been slashed in the past few years."
IGO released its third-quarter update on 30 April. IGO shares closed up 3.4% on the day.
"The Greenbushes lithium mine continues to demonstrate why it is a world-class mining asset," IGO CEO Ivan Vella said at the time.
Vella added:
The margins and cash generated at the bottom of the cycle are a standout, not just in lithium but in the broader mining industry. The mine is performing well and has considerable potential for increased productivity and growth.
Commenting on the miner's third-quarter performance, Watt said:
Sales revenue of $111 million in the third quarter of fiscal year 2025 was down 16% on the second quarter. Underlying EBITDA [earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation] of $34 million was up from a $79 million loss in the second quarter.
The ASX 200 lithium miner also reported a 15% increase in net cash from the prior quarter, to $284 million.
But that still doesn't make IGO shares a buy for Watt.
"Net cash is positive, but capital expenditure requirements for refining assets is too high, in our view," he said. "We would be inclined to sell into recent share price strength. Better company outlooks exist elsewhere."
