Auckland International Airport Ltd (ASX: AIA) share price has fallen more than 7% in 2025.
However there are there are key changes to pricing at the airport and Broker Macquarie has analysed what it could mean for this industrials stock moving forward.
Auckland Airport is New Zealand's largest airport, handling 21m passenger movements in pre-covid fiscal 2019, approximately 70% of the country's international visitors.
It also owns approximately 1,300 hectares of land, and hosts ancillary commercial services, including retail and duty-free, car parking, hotels, warehouses, and offices.
Important updates at Auckland International Airport
Essentially, AIA has been told by New Zealand's Commerce Commission (ComCom) that it was charging airlines too much for using the airport.
The regulator looked at how much return AIA should be making — a fair return based on the cost of doing business, known as the WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital).
ComCom said AIA was earning more than it should, by around $150–$227 million.
How has AIA responded?
AIA agreed to lower its prices, so it's no longer over-earning.
AIA will cut the fees it charges airlines in the next two years (FY26 and FY27). These are called aeronautical charges.
Average reductions:
- Regional flights: down $1.08 per passenger.
- Domestic jet flights: down $1.74 per passenger.
- International flights: down $4.86 per passenger.
These changes take effect from 1 July 2025.
What did Macquarie have to say?
According to the broker, it expects a small profit boost in FY26, with a bit of a pullback in FY27. But overall, this is seen as a responsible adjustment to meet regulatory expectations.
AIA responded with alacrity, consistent with previous public statements that it would amend aeronautical pricing if the final report deemed it to be over-earning.
AIA has indicated that it would discount the pricing schedule by an average of ~11% in each of FY26 and FY27, targeting a total return over PSE4 of 7.82%. Macquarie adjusted its forecasts to reflect this linear price discounting.
It's important to note that its primary reporting currency is NZD.
When issuing target prices, analysts usually use the company's base currency for consistency with its financial reporting, earnings, and valuation models.
The report included an "outperform" rating and updated price target of NZD $8.63.
Auckland International Airport shares are currently trading at NZD $7.76, which indicates an upside of 11.21% over the next 12 months.
