Owners of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares may have gotten used to their ASX bank share delivering solid results in the last few years. The question is, can the bank continue to impress the market?
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently cut the Australian official cash rate by 25 basis points (0.25%), which puts the trajectory of bank earnings under the microscope. If rates continue to go lower, there will be both positive and negative effects on bank earnings.
It'll be interesting to see how CBA's earnings develop in the near term, particularly when it comes to credit provisions, arrears, and the bank's net interest margin (NIM). The NIM is a bank's profit on its lending in margin terms.
After CBA recently announced its FY25 third-quarter profit, which saw cash profit of $2.6 billion (up 6% year over year), analysts updated their forecasts on the ASX bank share.
Let's have a look at how CBA's earnings could go from here.
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FY25
There's not much of FY25 left, but it's important to know where the bank's earnings could start.
Broker UBS noted that CBA's quarterly net interest income in the three months to 31 March 2025 was flat, with growth of lending volume offset by ongoing competitive pressure in deposits.
The bank also reported a loan impairment expense of $223 million, with collective and individual provisions slightly higher. CBA reported that portfolio credit quality had "remained sound".
UBS said the result was in line with expectations, with steady revenue growth and disciplined cost management.
The broker expects CBA's cash earnings per share (EPS) to grow by 5.2% in FY25, the highest projected growth rate among the large ASX bank shares.
UBS is predicting that CBA could deliver net profit of $10.275 billion.
FY26
Pleasingly for owners of CBA shares, UBS is expecting further profit growth in the 2026 financial year.
The broker noted to clients that Commonwealth Bank "remains disciplined" in delivering income growth faster than expense growth and increasing pre-provision operating profit. According to UBS, management is "controlling a number of levers to drive this".
With that in mind, the broker is expecting CBA's net profit to increase by a further 4.4% to $10.73 billion.
FY27
Profits could get even better in the 2027 financial year for the major ASX bank share.
UBS predicts that CBA's net profit could rise by a further 3.4% to $11.1 billion.
FY28
Profit generation could increase for CBA in the 2028 financial year. UBS currently projects that CBA's net profit in FY28 could be $11.58 billion, which would reflect year-over-year growth of 4.3%.
FY29
The final year of this series of projections could be the most pleasing of all.
UBS is forecasting that CBA's net profit could climb by a further 4.75% in FY29 to $12.13 billion.
Does the projected profit growth justify the current CBA share price? It's currently trading at 24x FY29's estimated earnings. UBS has a sell rating on the bank, with a price target of $115.
