BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are under the microscope this month, as ASX large-cap stocks catch a revitalising bid following a turbulent few months of trade.
Shares in the mining giant slumped to six-month lows of $34.16 apiece in April, as global markets saw a large unwind thanks to geopolitical uncertainty regarding US-China relations.
They have since reclaimed these losses and are trading at their highest mark in over a month.
Despite this, top brokers have mixed opinions about the mining giant's prospects. So, what's the latest on BHP shares according to analysts? Let's dive in.
BHP shares: Broker ratings and price targets
After a dip in its share price, BHP shares are currently swapping hands at around $39.50. And while the market has seen its ups and downs, brokers have varied opinions on BHP's future, with some seeing potential upside and others forecasting caution.
According to CommSec, the consensus of analyst estimates rates BHP shares a buy. The consensus includes 13 bullish brokers, seven holds, and none recommending selling the stock.
Meanwhile, the consensus price target is $43.40 apiece as per Tradingview, excluding any impact from dividends.
As for dividends, consensus also has the mining giant to throw off $1.39 per share in income to shareholders this year, settling to $1.35 in 2026.
This equates to yields of 3.5% for both years, respectively, at the time of writing.
In April, UBS brokers set a price target of $40 on BHP shares, rating them a hold at the time. But, UBS also downgraded its outlook for 2025 and 2026 due to potential risks in the copper and iron ore markets.
Goldman Sachs is slightly more bullish on the mining giant. It has a valuation of $45.10 on the miner, baking in an additional $1.57 per share in dividends on top of this.
It reckons BHP could see its copper earnings grow by $5 billion by FY26.
On its US listing, Citigroup analyst Paul Mctaggart and Argus Research's John Eade have buy ratings on BHP shares as well.
Whereas Barclays, RBC Capital, and Berenberg Bank are in the hold camp at the time of writing.
Factors driving BHP's performance
Arguably, the biggest factor underlying the performance of BHP shares is the price of iron ore. It has been on a downward trend this past year, currently fetching US$100.42 per tonne versus $117 per tonne this time last year.
According to OilPrice.com, futures contracts on iron ore "increased sharply" this week as the US and China look to have made a deal on tariffs.
Following the announcement, the September contract on the DCE went up 7.185% to roughly US $99.2 (718.5 yuan) per ton. Coke and coking coal futures also saw gains, rising 0.75% and 0.68% to about $203 (1,471.5 yuan) and $123 (889.5 yuan) per ton, respectively.
BHP's Western Australia iron ore production held steady at 68 million tonnes in the first quarter. What impact this has long term on BHP shares, we can only speculate.
Foolish Takeaway
BHP shares have faced challenges already this year, but brokers have mixed opinions on the mining giant. While the consensus view leans towards bullish, there's a draught of cautiousness swirling about the hallways of the ASX when it comes to BHP.
The stock is up 9% in the past month.
