Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) shares have surpassed the $10 mark for the first time since March this year.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (INDEXASX: XJO) airline stock crossed over $10 this morning, peaking at $10.16 just after midday.
And it's not the first time tailwinds have pushed the stock higher.
Qantas last surpassed $10 when it reached an all-time high of $10.20 on 4 March 2025, before dropping back down to $8.02 just a month later on 9 April. Since then, share prices have steadily increased.
Today's outperformance isn't surprising given Qantas shares have climbed a huge 62.78% over the year to date, which is significantly higher than the 6.82% annual return of S&P/ASX 200.
Which begs the questions: What has happened? And is there room for more?
What pushed the Qantas share prices upwards?
Qantas has enjoyed robust earnings and revenue growth over the past year, which has helped contribute to positive investor sentiment.
At its interim results for H1 FY2025, the airline reported an underlying profile before tax of $1.39 billion, representing an 11% increase from the same period the previous year.
At the same time, Qantas noted it had responded to increased demand for travel and increased passenger capacity by 10%, leading to higher profitability.
The robust earnings report followed strong full-year results.
Meanwhile, in May, crude oil prices fell to four-year lows (around US$61.83 per barrel) after the major oil-producing countries of OPEC+ decided to increase production, according to the ABC.
Given that jet fuel represents a significant portion of airline costs, any reduction could lead to improved profitability for airlines. Qantas expects FY25 fuel cost to be approximately $5.22 billion, inclusive of hedging and gross carbon cost of around $70 million.
Can Qantas shares fly higher?
In short, yes.
Qantas itself expects revenue and earnings growth to continue over the second half of the 2025 financial year. In the H1 2025 report, the airline states:
"Group Domestic unit revenue is expected to increase by 3-5 per cent in the second half of the financial year compared to the previous year. Group International unit revenue is expected to be flat over the same period."
The second tailwind, low oil prices, is also expected to continue. Prices remain subdued in the near term, and there is potential for further weakness if global conditions deteriorate or if producers opt to scale back production in line with demand.
Continuation of both these trends supports the potential for Qantas share prices to continue rising.
According to analysts, one-year price forecasts for Qantas have a maximum estimate of $11.97 and a minimum estimate of $9.30.
