Super Retail Group Ltd (ASX: SUL) shares have been on a tear recently.
Since dropping to a 52-week low of $12.06 in April, the retail conglomerate's shares have rallied almost 19% to $14.30.
Does this make them a buy, hold, or sell right now? Let's see what analysts at Macquarie are saying about the owner of BCF, Macpac, Rebel, and Supercheap Auto.
What is being said about Super Retail?
Macquarie notes that Super Retail has provided an update that covers the first 18 weeks of the second half. Unfortunately, while the company continues to grow its top line, it has reported a slowdown in its sales growth compared to the first half. It said:
Total sales growth in 2H25 YTD up +4.5% vs pcp, albeit with sales slowing in all brands since the first 7 weeks of trading (on both LFL and total sales basis). Macpac total sales have slowed the most, to just 1.3% for the first 18 weeks of 2H25e, compared to 13% in the first 7 weeks. Management note Macpac has been impacted by greater exposure to NZ, with peak trading period expected in 4Q25. We reduce our total sales growth forecasts in 2H25e to 4.8% YoY, down from the previous 5.2%, with some improvement in Macpac sales expected in 4Q25e.
The broker also highlights that competitive pressures are expected for Supercheap Auto and Rebel. In respect to the latter, this includes Accent Group Ltd (ASX AX1) rolling out the Sports Direct brand across the ANZ region. It said:
Ongoing competitive pressure anticipated, particularly for SCA and rebel categories. While management noted that competition was beginning to stabilise in the auto landscape, we note competitors have been discounting to clear stock. Their strategy to respond to competitive pressure in SCA involves avoiding deep discounting and focusing on maintaining strong customer loyalty and preference.
For rebel, new entrants like Sports Direct present challenges, but management expect their investments in stores and range provide a defence. Further, SUL are seeing a material unwinding of basket growth, with average basket size decreasing, albeit the number of transactions holding up.
Are Super Retail shares a buy, hold, or sell?
In light of the above and the recent rally by Super Retail's shares, Macquarie is suggesting that investors keep their powder dry and wait for a better entry point.
According to the note, its analysts have retained their neutral rating and cut their price target from $15.40 to $14.10. This is just a touch below where its shares currently trade.
Commenting on its neutral rating, Macquarie said:
Neutral. Sales growth slightly below MRE, albeit with GM% well below forecasts. We continue to see competitive pressure across brands, with new entrants presenting further risk.
