Aristocrat Leisure Ltd (ASX: ALL) shares will be on watch next week.
That's because the gaming technology company is scheduled to release its half year results on 14 May.
Ahead of the release, let's take a look at what Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) is expecting from the leading poker machine developer.
What is expected from Aristocrat?
According to a note out of investment bank, it is expecting a reasonably solid result from Aristocrat next week.
The broker is forecasting revenue of $3,193 million. This is down 2% over the prior corresponding period and a touch short of the consensus estimate of $3,223 million.
However, this softer revenue reflects the sale of its Plarium business in November, which is expected to offset growth in the Gaming and Interactive businesses.
As for profits, the broker believes that a net profit after tax before amortisation (NPATA) of $809 million will be reported. This represents a 6% increase year on year and is just a little below the consensus estimate of $812 million. It said:
Aristocrat reports its 1H25 result on 14 May 2025; we forecast A$809m continuing ops actual-FX NPATA, +6% yoy (Visible Alpha = A$812m), noting that we have removed Plarium from 1 October 2025.
Macquarie also revealed that it will be looking for management to reaffirm its FY 2025 growth outlook when it releases its half year results. It said:
We expect vague outlook statements with reaffirmation for FY25 continuing ops constant-FX NPATA growth (MQe = +12% yoy) noting that each 1c change in the AUD / USD is worth around +/- 1.5ppts to EPSA.
Should you buy Aristocrat Leisure shares?
While buying a company's shares before it releases its results can be risky, Macquarie appears to believe that the risk/reward is in favour of investors.
According to the note, the broker has put a buy rating and $75.00 price target on Aristocrat Leisure's shares. Based on its current share price of $68.39, this implies potential upside of just under 10% for investors over the next 12 months.
The broker also expects a modest 1.3% dividend yield, which boosts the total return to approximately 11%.
Commenting on its buy recommendation, Macquarie said:
Aristocrat is our top pick within Australian Gaming, with defensive and robust earnings, and an attractive growth outlook (+14% three-year EPSA CAGR). Balance sheet provides M&A / buy-back optionality, and valuation is attractive on 24x 12m fwd. P/E, a 14% premium to ASX300 industrials.
