Since the lows that we saw last month, the US markets have rebounded significantly. But does that mean that it is too late to buy US-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like the Vanguard US Total Market Shares Index ETF (ASX: VTS) or the VanEck Wide Moat ETF (ASX: MOAT)?
It was only a month ago that we were one day away from US President Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' announcements. This day quickly became infamous for Trump's harsh trade agenda, in which he outlined the imposition of sweeping, deep tariffs on almost every country in the world.
Of course, these ended up spooking markets so much that soon after, Trump committed to delaying the tariffs for 90 days.
To illustrate, let's check out the performance of the Vanguard US Total Market Shares Index ETF, which, as a whole-market index fund, can be considered a proxy for the US markets. Between 2 April and 9 April, VTS units plunged by a brutal 9%. However, Trump's tariff reversal was just as effective in moving this trend. Between 22 April and today, VTS units have recovered by 8.7%.
It's a similar story with the VanEck Wide Moat ETF.
MOAT and VTS
This ASX ETF isn't an index fund. Instead, it holds a relatively concentrated portfolio of actively selected US stocks. These stocks are chosen based on their perceived possession of a wide economic moat. This concept, first popularised by legendary investor Warren Buffett, refers to an intrinsic competitive advantage that a company can possess. This could be a powerful brand, a low-cost advantage, or selling a product or service that consumers find difficult to substitute.
Looking at MOAT's current portfolio, you'll see names like Disney, Campbell's Soup, and Boeing, which respectively exemplify those traits we just listed.
MOAT units were hit just as hard as those of the VTS ETF last month. Between 2 and 9 April, MOAT tanked by 9.22%. However, it, too, rebounded after 22 April, rising 7.54% since then.
So, is it too late to buy these ASX ETFs following the sizeable rebounds we have seen?
When is the best time to buy these ASX ETFs?
To start with, let's note that both of these ASX ETFs are high-quality options. The VTS ETF is a low-cost index fund of the kind that Warren Buffett himself has endorsed in the past. If America continues to prosper, as it has done for more than two centuries, then so too will the Vanguard US Total Market Shares ETF.
MOAT is not an index fund. However, I would argue that its long track record of delivering meaningful returns (15.01% per annum since inception on the latest numbers) also qualifies it as a high-calibre ASX ETF.
Obviously, the lower the prices of these ETFs get, the higher one's potential future returns will be.
I'm not here to tell you that the lows we saw last month were perfect buying opportunities for these funds. If the markets continue to rise over the rest of 2025, then they will have been. But we have no way of knowing what the rest of the year will bring. Particularly considering the volatile nature of the Trump Administration's trade policies.
As such, I think a better way to frame this question is to ask oneself 'How can I get the best bang for my investing buck'. The answer to this question is only ever available in hindsight. But what we do know is that markets go up far more often than they go down. The US markets have also never failed to exceed a previous all-time high.
If those facts hold, then, by logic, we should invest as much as we can into our investments as soon as we can.
