Trying to beat the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) over any single year is never straightforward. Markets rarely move in straight lines, and even the best ideas can take longer than expected to play out.
That said, when I think about relative outperformance, I ask where earnings growth is most likely to come from, and whether my portfolio is tilted toward or away from those areas.
For me, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are one of the cleanest ways to do this. They allow me to back structural trends and high-quality businesses without relying on a single stock to do all the work.
In 2026, I believe there are two ETFs that have a strong chance of outperforming the ASX 200 Index.
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BetaShares NASDAQ 100 ETF (ASX: NDQ)
The BetaShares NASDAQ 100 ETF is my preferred way to access global growth through a single holding.
It tracks the NASDAQ-100 Index (NASDAQ: NDX), which includes 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the NASDAQ exchange. This gives exposure to businesses that sit at the centre of global innovation, including leaders in software, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and digital platforms.
What I like most about this ETF is how different it looks from the Australian share market. The ASX 200 is dominated by banks, miners, and mature industrial companies. Those businesses can be dependable, but they are not typically where the fastest earnings growth comes from.
By contrast, the companies inside the BetaShares NASDAQ 100 ETF are still reinvesting aggressively and expanding into enormous addressable markets. Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, and Alphabet are not just large companies. They are critical infrastructure for the modern economy.
If earnings growth remains solid and interest rate pressure continues to ease in the United States, I see a credible path for this ETF to outperform the ASX 200.
VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat AUD ETF (ASX: MOAT)
The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF appeals to a different part of my investing mindset.
Rather than chasing growth outright, this ETF focuses on companies with competitive advantages, what Warren Buffett refers to as wide economic moats. These advantages might come from brand strength, network effects, switching costs, cost leadership, or intellectual property.
What gives me confidence in this ETF is not just the quality of the businesses it owns, but the discipline behind how they are selected. The portfolio is built by combining moat ratings with valuation assessments, which helps avoid overpaying for even the best companies.
I like this approach in an environment where market leadership can rotate quickly. When enthusiasm fades for more speculative areas of the market, capital often flows back toward businesses with resilient earnings and strong balance sheets. This ETF is well-positioned for that kind of shift.
Compared to the ASX 200, this ETF offers far greater exposure to global quality and far less reliance on Australian banks and resource stocks. That diversification alone makes it attractive if my goal is to outperform the local market.
